[Exclusive Estimate] Approximately 520,000 Elderly Individuals Requiring Long-Term Care Nationwide Face Barriers to Facility Entry Due to Lack of Guarantors. Anshin no Wa Releases Regional Data.

Anshin no Wa General Incorporated Association (Representative Director: Akihiro Tanaka) released its exclusive estimate report on June 28, 2026, concerning the "Number of Elderly Individuals Requiring Long-Term Care or Support for Whom Family Guarantorship is Difficult," driven by the rapid increase in single-person elderly households.

This estimate revealed that approximately 520,000 elderly individuals requiring long-term care nationwide are at risk of facing practical barriers to entering facilities due to their inability to secure a guarantor.

▼ Click here for details https://www.ansinnowa.net/research/nursing-home-guarantor-research/

▼ Click here for the PDF report https://www.ansinnowa.net/cms/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ansinnowa-nursing-home-guarantor-report-2026.pdf

【Three Highlights of This Estimate Report】

It is estimated (2026 edition) that approximately 521,000 elderly individuals requiring long-term care or support nationwide are at risk of facing institutional barriers due to "not having a guarantor" when entering facilities.

The at-risk population is concentrated in major metropolitan areas, with approximately 147,000 in the Tokyo metropolitan area (1 prefecture, 3 prefectures) and about 100,000 in the Osaka metropolitan area (4 prefectures in the Kinki region).

Detailed data by prefecture and metropolitan area is available free of charge for municipalities and welfare stakeholders considering elderly life support and community-based integrated care systems.

Background and Objectives of the Estimate

In Japan, with its rapidly aging society and increasing number of single-person households, securing a "guarantor (joint guarantor, guarantor of person, etc.)" required for admission to care facilities or housing for the elderly has become an extremely serious social issue.

While macro population data on the "number of elderly people without relatives" has existed, data visualizing the specific scale of the at-risk population who "cannot secure housing or care services due to the absence of a guarantor" at the critical juncture of needing care and entering a facility, broken down by region, has been unavailable.

Therefore, Anshin no Wa General Incorporated Association, which provides life support and guarantor support services for seniors, conducted an exclusive estimate by combining the latest statistics from public institutions and private think tanks to grasp the potential support needs in each region.

Main Estimate Results

【National Estimate】Over 520,000 Face Guarantor Requirements for Facility Entry The estimated potential number of elderly individuals who are without relatives, have received certification for requiring long-term care (or support), and face entry hurdles because facilities require a guarantor is 520,600 nationwide. This is a scale comparable to the total population of Tottori Prefecture and represents an extremely serious practical challenge.

【By Metropolitan Area】Risk of Guarantor Vacuum Concentrated in Major Metropolitan Areas The concentration in the Tokyo metropolitan area (147,800 people) and the Osaka metropolitan area (100,180 people) is remarkable, with nearly half of the national estimate (approximately 47.6%) occurring in these two major metropolitan areas. This highlights the reality of rapidly disappearing support networks from relatives in areas where nuclear families and single-person households are most advanced.

【By Prefecture】Ranking of Absolute Numbers of At-Risk Population Looking at the absolute numbers by prefecture, Tokyo Metropolis (approx. 67,000), Osaka Prefecture (approx. 53,000), and Kanagawa Prefecture (approx. 35,000) rank highest, clearly identifying the areas where the balance between the supply and demand for facility admission is most likely to become strained.

Usage and Citation of the Report

The data, estimate results, and figures in this report can be freely used and cited in media articles, various documents for municipalities, blogs, etc., provided that the source (Anshin no Wa General Incorporated Association) is clearly stated and a link to the relevant page is provided.

▼ Click here for details https://www.ansinnowa.net/research/nursing-home-guarantor-research/

▼ Click here for the PDF report https://www.ansinnowa.net/cms/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ansinnowa-nursing-home-guarantor-report-2026.pdf

Corporate Overview

Anshin no Wa General Incorporated Association is an organization that provides comprehensive senior support (life support, guarantor services, etc.) for the elderly to live with peace of mind.

Corporate Name: Anshin no Wa General Incorporated Association

Representative Director: Akihiro Tanaka

Business Activities: Services related to life support for the elderly, guarantor support, and end-of-life support.

Official Website: https://www.ansinnowa.net/