【Large-Scale Survey】40% of Smokers Quit When Cigarettes Reach ¥600 per Pack! Nearly 90% Pledge to Quit at ¥1,000—Analyzing How Tax Hikes Are Changing Smoker Behavior and Exposing Income Inequality

Overload Inc. (headquartered in Yokkaichi, Mie Prefecture), operator of the heated tobacco information media RELAZO, conducted a nationwide survey targeting 49,879 men and women aged 20 to 69 on smoking and smoking cessation awareness.

Amid growing health consciousness and the enforcement of passive smoking prevention laws, the environment surrounding smokers continues to evolve year by year.

Additionally, from 2026 onward, heated tobacco products will face phased tax increases (in April and October), and rising production costs are triggering price hikes for traditional cigarettes. As a result, the financial burden of cigarette expenses is becoming an increasingly pressing issue for smokers in their daily lives.

Under these circumstances, what choices will smokers make if tax increases continue?

And for those who have already successfully quit, what prompted them to take action?

【Survey Summary】

1. Current smokers account for about 20%! The most commonly used product is 'traditional cigarettes'.

2. Even with price hikes, nearly half remain loyal to their current brand! A significant portion are considering switching brands or quitting.

3. The price point at which smokers quit varies by income—by a factor of 1.8x. Nearly half of those earning under ¥4 million annually would quit at ¥600 per pack, highlighting the 'luxury goods gap' that 2026 tax hikes may widen.

4. The trigger for quitting smoking—'household financial burden'—is nearly equal to 'future health concerns.' Tax increases are acting as a catalyst for quitting.

Detailed results of this survey can be viewed on the following page.

View details here

When citing these survey results, please credit 'RELAZO survey' and include the URL above.

【Survey Results】

Current smokers make up about 20% of the population. Around 60% of smokers prefer traditional cigarettes.

First, regarding 'smoking experience,' the following responses were obtained:

'Currently smoke' (22.9%)

'Never smoked' (52.8%)

'Used to smoke but have quit' (24.3%)

The proportion of respondents who answered 'currently smoke' is approximately 20%.

This figure aligns closely with an estimated smoking rate of about 18.4% for the same 20–69 age group, calculated using age-specific data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's 'Fiscal Year 2024 National Health and Nutrition Survey,' indicating consistency with official statistics.

※The smoking rate for ages 20–69 is a reference value calculated by our company based on gender- and age-specific proportions and respondent numbers from the same survey.

Next, among those who answered 'currently smoke,' we asked:

When asked about the 'type of tobacco most frequently used,' the largest group selected 'traditional cigarettes' (57.5%), followed by 'heated tobacco (IQOS, glo, ploom, Lil Hybrid, With2, etc.)' (39.9%), and 'VAPE (including nicotine-free e-cigarettes)' (1.3%).

Traditional cigarettes account for about 60%, maintaining strong support, while about 40% primarily use heated tobacco products.

This suggests that heated tobacco, once a novel alternative, has now become a deeply established mainstream choice among smokers.

Social changes such as consideration for others and increasing restrictions on smoking environments likely encourage the shift toward heated tobacco, which produces less smoke and odor.

Additionally, when examining heated tobacco usage by gender, women (41.6%) showed a slightly higher adoption rate than men (39.1%).

This result closely matches official statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (men: 41.4%, women: 44.2%).

The fact that this trend is clearly confirmed in our large-scale survey data indicates that the preference for low-odor, low-smoke heated tobacco is more deeply embedded among women.

※Reference: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 'Results of the FY2024 National Health and Nutrition Survey' https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_66279.html

Nearly half say they will 'continue smoking the same brand' even after tax hikes! What is the price threshold for quitting?

While tobacco choices aligned with lifestyles are becoming established, what decisions are smokers considering in light of upcoming tax-driven price increases?

Here, we asked respondents who selected 'traditional cigarettes' or 'heated tobacco (IQOS, glo, ploom, Lil Hybrid, With2, etc.)' as their most frequently used product:

When asked, 'After the 2026 tax reforms, even if taxes cause cigarette prices to rise, will you continue smoking?', the largest group answered 'I intend to continue smoking the same brand' (49.6%), followed by 'I want to switch to a cheaper brand' (25.6%), and 'I want to quit smoking' (17.4%).

This shows that even if prices rise, about half intend to continue with their current brand.

At the same time, a significant number are considering switching to cheaper brands or quitting, suggesting that price changes can directly trigger behavioral shifts.

Price increases may serve as a concrete catalyst for some smokers to reevaluate their habits.

At the '¥600 per pack' threshold, cumulative quit intentions reach 40%. Income disparities become clear—lower-income groups decide earlier.

So, at what exact price per pack would smokers decide to quit?

When asked, 'If tobacco taxes increase in the future, at what price per pack would you want to quit smoking?', the following responses were obtained:

At the price point near the current mainstream range—'up to ¥600'—cumulative quit intentions reach about 40%, indicating a significant psychological barrier.

Furthermore, exceeding '¥700' leads to about 60% cumulative consideration of quitting, and reaching '¥1,000' brings cumulative quit intentions to about 90%.

While some smokers quit at small price increases and others tolerate prices up to ¥1,000, rising prices may prompt smokers to reconsider their long-standing habits.

Moreover, analyzing 'quit intentions when pack prices reach up to ¥600' by household annual income revealed stark economic disparities.

Among those earning under ¥4 million annually, 47.0% said they would quit at 'up to ¥600,' whereas only 25.6% of those earning ¥15 million or more would quit at that price, showing a significant gap.

This suggests that for lower-income individuals, rising cigarette costs directly pressure household budgets, forcing earlier decisions to quit.

In practice, switching to lower-priced brands remains an option, so they may not immediately exit the market.

However, the range of choices—'continue the same brand,' 'switch to a cheaper brand,' or 'quit'—itself narrows with income.

Price increases due to tax hikes may thus widen the gap in who can afford to maintain their luxury habits.

List of cigarette brands subject to price increases

The trigger for quitting: 'household financial burden' nearly equals 'future health concerns.' Rising prices are becoming a key factor in encouraging smoking cessation.

Tax hikes and health awareness are contributing factors in smokers quitting.