New Book Announcement: The Naphtha Shock: Survival Strategies for the Chemical Industry in the Age of AI Power Competition ~ Vulnerabilities in By-product Networks and Defense of Semiconductor Material Supply Chains ~ Published by CMC Research Inc.

The explosive increase in power demand due to the rapid expansion of generative AI, the restructuring of naphtha crackers, and the rise of China's CTC model--.

Japan's chemical industry is currently in the midst of an unprecedented structural transformation.

This book visualizes the risks associated with the restructuring of chemical complexes and semiconductor material supply chains using its proprietary "BVRI (By-product Vulnerability Resilience Index)" metric.

This is a market research report that analyzes the AI power competition, economic security, and GX strategies across the board, and presents survival strategies for the chemical industry looking towards 2030-2035.

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📘 Book Overview

Title: The Naphtha Shock: Survival Strategies for the Chemical Industry in the Age of AI Power Competition ~ Vulnerabilities in By-product Networks and Defense of Semiconductor Material Supply Chains ~

Publication Date: July 3, 2026

Format: A4, Paperback, 185 pages

Price: ¥110,000 (excluding tax) (Book version)

Set Price (Book + PDF CD): ¥176,000 (excluding tax) (Book + CD (PDF version))

ISBN: 978-4-910581-93-4

Published by: CMC Research Inc.

📝 Features of this Book

➢ The End of the Naphtha Model! A complete picture of the chemical industry's "irreversible collapse" revealed through event triggers!

➢ Will AI data centers steal electricity? The reality of the intensifying power competition among chemical complexes!

➢ Visualized with the proprietary BVRI metric! The vulnerability of the by-product network that could cause a domino effect in Japan's material supply!

➢ The trap of China's CTC model! A scenario of "discontinuous supply disruptions" threatening Japan's advanced materials!

➢ The limitations of import substitution hindered by required purity and 4M management. Why "overseas products" cannot be substituted?

➢ Special material supply chains facing logistical limits. The outcome beyond the "2024 Problem"!

➢ Complete analysis of survival capabilities across 11 domestic chemical complexes! Success hinges on securing power and LNG!

➢ The trap of bio-naphtha and waste plastic oil conversion! Cutting through the "lies and truths" of environmental strategies with economic rationality!

➢ Whoever controls semiconductor materials controls the market! The conditions for "industrial OS dominance" at stake for survival!

◎ On Publication

Japan's chemical industry, and by extension the entire manufacturing sector's supply chain which is based upon it, is now facing an unprecedented crisis of "irreversible collapse." For many years, the overwhelming international competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing was supported by highly integrated chemical complexes and the high-purity, high-functionality derivatives produced from them. However, this seemingly robust ecosystem is now transforming into a house of cards due to waves of structural change that are simultaneously surging from both within and without.

This report unravels not merely temporary market downturns or transient cost increases. It reveals a "tectonic shift" in the entire supply chain brought about by the structural demise of the naphtha-only burning model, which is a basic raw material. The meticulously functioning mutual supply network of by-products within chemical complexes is being progressively severed by the shutdown and廃止 of major plants. This vulnerability is semi-quantitatively visualized using a new metric, the "By-product Vulnerability Resilience Index (BVRI)," to meticulously analyze where the initial domino effect will originate.

Furthermore, the overwhelming supply capacity brought by China's Crude-to-Chemicals (CTC) model, and the inherent risk of discontinuous supply disruptions it entails, highlights the limitations of import substitution on which Japanese manufacturing relies. From the perspective of analytical science, the barriers of required purity and measurement limits are high, making it difficult to switch to overseas products. In addition, the prolonged 4M change management in quality assurance and the physical limitations of logistics hinder agile directional changes by companies.

Moreover, these structural weaknesses unique to the chemical industry are being dealt a fatal blow by external factors. This is the new geopolitical risk of "collision with AI power demand." The dramatic increase in data centers due to the explosive spread of generative AI, and the repatriation of advanced semiconductor factories, are severely straining Japan's domestic power grid. With the maintenance of in-house thermal power generation reaching its limits under the grand mandate of carbon neutrality, the chemical industry is being forced into a fierce "competition" with giant IT companies and semiconductor giants for limited power and LNG lines. The survival capabilities of domestic chemical complexes in areas such as the Tokyo metropolitan area, Kawasaki, and Yokkaichi are now being bifurcated based on the success or failure of securing these power grids.

In this rapidly changing environment, for Japanese high-functionality material sectors, especially companies involved in semiconductor materials and advanced materials, to survive, they must discern the "lies and truths" of carbon neutrality strategies and pivot towards a cold-blooded defense of supply chains rooted in economic security. And they must establish dominance over the "industrial OS" platform, becoming indispensable to their customers' processes.

This report dissects the full picture of the crisis facing Japan's chemical industry using a multifaceted approach of event triggers and network topology. We hope this will serve as a survival guide for all executives, strategists, and practitioners concerned about the future of Japanese manufacturing, to derive cold, hard solutions in this era of upheaval.

CMC Research, Research Department

📖 Book Structure and Table of Contents Overview

Part I: Mechanism of "Irreversible Collapse" Revealed Through Event Triggers and Network Topology

Part II: [New Domain] "Chemical Industry vs. AI Power Demand" - Chemical Complex Geopolitics and Power Competition

Part III: Thorough Survival and Vulnerability Analysis of Naphtha Crackers at 11 Domestic Chemical Complexes

Part IV: Risk Assessment of High-Functionality Derivatives and Advanced Materials (4 Major Chains, 15 Items)

Part V: Rebuilding the Chemical Industry: A Strategic Roadmap Towards Resource Independence

Part VI: Structural Survival of the High-Functionality Materials Sector: Industrial OS Dominance and Management Actions

Introduction: Definition and Analytical Methodology of "By-product Networks"

1. By-product Networks: Quantitative Evaluation of the Structure and Vulnerabilities of Petrochemical Supply Chains

2. Basic Positioning and Limitations of BVRI

3. Structural Redefinition of Supply Chains: Multilayered Interconnected Structures and BVRI in the Chemical Industry

4. Functions and Constraints of Each Node (Operational and Constraint Structures of Petrochemical Complexes and Advanced Material Supply Chains)

4.1 Crackers (Primary Supply Nodes)

4.2 Derivative Plants (Intermediate Conversion Nodes)

4.3 Advanced Manufacturing Industries (Demand End Nodes)

5. Definition of By-product Network Components and Constraints

6. Development of the By-product Vulnerability Resilience Index (BVRI)

7. Index Integration Algorithm (Weakest Link Method)

8. Data Sources and Measurement Limitations

9. Extension to Dynamic Collapse

Part I: Mechanism of "Irreversible Collapse" Revealed Through Event Triggers and Network Topology

Chapter 1: Structural Demise of the Naphtha-Only Burning Model and Reconstruction into Green Supply Chains

1. Irreversible Transition: Structural Reconstruction of Japan's Petrochemical Industry

2. The Limit Line for Maintaining Domestic Total Cracker Operating Rate at "72%" (Domino Effect of Voluntary Withdrawal Due to Fixed Cost Recovery Failure)

3. Breaking Through the Margin Limits for Specific Co-products within Districts (Especially C4/C5, BTX) (Expanding Losses Compared to Overseas)

4. "Twice Consecutive Scheduled Maintenance Deferrals" for in-district steam and self-generation facilities, and rejection of investment decisions for facility upgrades (hundreds of millions to billions of yen).

5. Supply margin and safety margin for butadiene and C5 fractions.

6. Imposition of global carbon costs and breaking through the limits of hydrogen and ammonia conversion costs.

7. Summary: Dynamic coupled model of structural collapse (interaction system of five major triggers).

Chapter 2: Semi-quantitative modeling of supply chains using the By-product Vulnerability Resilience Index (BVRI)

1. BVRI: Structural triage and survival strategies for petrochemical complexes.

2. Mathematical sensitivity analysis of ethylene production cuts breaking the edges (connections) downstream (C3/C4/C5/BTX).

3. Node centrality analysis.

4. Quantitative simulation of "lead time delay" from pipeline direct connection (on-site supply) line stoppage to shift to truck and coastal vessel.

5. Summary: Application of BVRI for defining "red zones" and its use in management triage.

6. Practical application case study: Application and ranking comparison of BVRI evaluation in three major domestic complexes.

Chapter 3: Internal vulnerabilities of the Chinese CTC model and "discontinuous supply stoppage triggers"

1. Supply network risk analysis of Chinese petrochemical complexes: Structural defense theory using Node Criticality and TTC.

2. Supply capacity of coastal China CTC and geopolitical/logistics risks.

3. Local government debt issues and the risk of "partial disconnection type" supply stoppages.

4. Margin deterioration and "voluntary supply stoppage triggers".

5. Priority of external shocks and policy implications.

Chapter 4: Limits of import substitution from the perspective of analytical science: The wall of required purity and measurement limitations

1. The true horror of high purification: Destructive effects of trace impurities on advanced processes.

2. Constraints of analytical platforms: The wall of limitations in major measurement technologies.

3. The barrier of "analysis and validation costs" hindering the import substitution model.

4. Deepening market characteristic separation: The misconception that "if it's high purity, it can be diverted".

5. Conclusion: Ultra-high purity materials are an "integrated system".

Chapter 5: Anatomy of 4M change management (quality assurance): What prolongs certification timelines?

1. 4M changes and supply risks: Quality assurance strategies under time constraints.

2. Decomposition of risk depth: Identifying the "worst-case scenario" in 4M changes.

3. Recertification process structure in semiconductor and automotive supply chains.

4. Supply disruption simulation incorporating certification timelines.

5. Implications for supply chain management.

6. Redefining 4M change management: Building next-generation industrial governance through certification optimization.

Chapter 6: Physical limits of logistics

1. Overview: Progression of "thrombosis" in advanced material supply chains.

2. Constraints due to port structure and increasing logistics costs.

3. Structure of resource tightness in coastal shipping and land transportation.

4. Tightness of storage tanks and constraints as "quality assurance equipment".

5. Recommendation: Shift to strategies that emphasize supply continuity capability.

Part II: [New Frontier] "Chemical Industry vs. AI Power Demand" - Complex Geopolitics and the Battle for Power

Chapter 1: The trap of energy transition: System constraints and the limit of maintaining self-generation power

1. Structural positioning of complex self-generation power and pressure for transition.

2. Structural inconsistency with carbon regulations.

3. Multi-layered structure of institutional investment pressure.

4. Carbon pricing and economic sustainability limits.

5. Nonlinearity of technology and market factors and alternative technologies.

6. Sensitivity analysis of self-generation power abolition: Discontinuity of transition brought about by institutions and technology costs.

7. OCCTO system dependency risk and business continuity of chemical plants: Functional decomposition and management strategy of physical quality.

7.1 "Quantity risk" due to system dependency: Probabilistic structure of Connect & Manage.

7.2 "Quality risk" due to system dependency: Vulnerability of physical characteristics and instantaneous voltage drop mechanism.

7.3 Functional decomposition of power quality and risk management strategy.

7.4 Recommendations for management: Asymmetry of risk and separation of optimal solutions.

Chapter 2: "Structural challenges in securing the power grid" with AI data centers and giant semiconductor factories

1. Simultaneous occurrence of "large-capacity power reception demand" in the Tokyo metropolitan, Kansai, and Setouchi areas, and progression of high-voltage grid congestion.

2. "Price acceptance capability gap" in the non-firm connection era and structural disadvantage of general-purpose petrochemical infrastructure.

3. "National-scale steady load" required by the introduction of electric heating naphtha cracking furnaces and grid constraints.

3.1 Scale of power demand: New construction equivalent to 3-5 large-scale power plants in effect.

3.2 Essence of grid constraints: From electricity volume to "quality (regulation, capacity value)".

3.3 Collapse of complex thermal integration and realistic power source configuration.

3.4 Criticality of industrial survival: Irreversible investment decisions forced by grid constraints.

Part III: Thorough Survival and Vulnerability Analysis of 11 Domestic Complexes and Naphtha Crackers

Chapter 1: The front line of "securing power and LNG lines" with metropolitan data center clusters

1. Changes in the energy supply and demand structure surrounding the Chiba area.

2. Constraints on transmission network capacity (grid) and competition for "connection rights". 3. Competition for LNG and gas pipelines.

4. Competition for renewable energy and green power.

5. Local infrastructure competition and transformation of industrial competitive structure in the GX and AI era in the Chiba area.

6. Cross-affiliation C4/BTX joint operation network.

6.1 "By-product logistics network" that forms the essence of the Chiba area.

6.2 Tightness and material balance of the C4 network.

6.3 Structure of the BTX network and interdependencies.

7. Integrated scenario for 2030-2035.

7.1 Uncertainties surrounding industrial structure transformation and macro environmental factors.

7.2 Definition of district OS-type joint operation network and four axes of transformation.

8. Summary: Expansion from competition at the factory level to "regional network design competition".

Chapter 2: Kawasaki area: Limits of the joint thermal infrastructure dependency structure and operational risks associated with refinery reorganization

1. "Thermal infrastructure dependency" and by-product network-type complexes in the Kawasaki coastal area.

2. The price of sophistication: Three emerging structural constraints.

3. Thermal balance collapse caused by refinery withdrawal.

4. Impact of loss of joint steam supply on the complex and ripple mechanism.

5. Paradox of success: The branching point between thermal supply-demand optimization and industrial hollowing out in the Kawasaki coastal area.

Chapter 3: Yokkaichi area (Tosoh): Building competitive advantage through an autonomous energy circulation system

1. Evaluation of resilience to drastic changes in the external energy environment due to the relative internal completeness of self-owned power and utility systems.

2. Essence of the inside-fence type integrated structure in the Yokkaichi area.

3. Power grid securing capability and evaluation of connection to manufacturing processes.

Chapter 4: Complex survival analysis in Western Japan, Setouchi, and other areas

1. BVRI evaluation and restructuring strategies for petrochemical complexes.

2. BVRI evaluation framework.

3. Comprehensive BVRI comparison.

4. Port/logistics constraints and competitive conditions.

5. Power grid securing capability.

6. Structural transformation triggers after 2030.

7. Petrochemical complexes: Integrated restructuring strategies for survival.

Part IV: Crisis Assessment of High-Performance Derivatives and Advanced Materials (4 Major Chains, 15 Products)

Chapter 1: Structural distortion of C2 and C3 chains

1. Ripple effects on VCM (vinyl chloride)/EG/EO chains.

2. MMA/AN/PO/PG: Structural crisis caused by "by-product interruption".

Chapter 2: C4 and C5 Chains: The Achilles' Heel of Japanese Manufacturing

1. Structural Characteristics of C4 and C5 Chains and BVRI Definition

2. Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (S-SBR)

3. 1,4-BDO/PBT

4. Isoprene-based (SIS, etc.)/Isobutylene-based (IIR, etc.)

5. COP/COC

6. Impact of GX and Carbon Constraints on C4 and C5 Chains

7. Redefining Analytical Science-based Economic Security: Overcoming Structural Vulnerabilities and "Invisible Choke Points" in the C4 and C5 Chains

Chapter 3: BTX (Aromatics) Chain: The Lifeline of Semiconductor Materials

1. Phenol/BPA/High-Purity Epoxy Resins

2. Xylene Derivatives (MXDA/MX Nylon)

Part V: Restructuring the Chemical Industry: A Strategic Roadmap for Resource Independence

Chapter 1: Evaluation of Implementation Possibilities for Bio-naphtha, Pyrolyzed Waste Plastic Oil, and Synthetic Olefins

1. Risks of Clogging and Degradation of Cracker Distillation Towers and Analysis Costs due to "Catalyst Poisons (Impurities)" in Bio-raw Materials and Pyrolyzed Waste Plastics

1.1 Chemical Behavior of Catalyst Poisons and Impurities and Their Mechanism of Impact on Cracker Distillation Towers

1.2 Engineering Challenges for Maintaining Continuous Operation (Extended Runtime) and the Role of Pre-treatment

1.3 Analytical Methods, Frequency, and Cost-Risk Structure for Impurity Management

2. Impact Estimation on Product Prices of "Electricity Costs (Green Hydrogen Costs)" in Direct CO2 Synthesis

2.1 Economic and Technical Prerequisites and Reaction Systems (CCU Technology Path)

2.2 Risk of CAPEX Surge due to Fluctuations in Electricity Costs (Yen/kWh) and Equipment Operating Rates

2.3 Conclusion: Optimization of Supply Systems and Future Implementation Strategies

Chapter 2: Defense of Advanced Technology Supply Chains Based on Economic Security

1. National Strategic Stockpiling of "Specific High-Purity By-product Monomers" Utilizing GX Economic Transition Bonds

2. Resilience Strategy Integrating Chemical Industrial Parks and Ports

Part VI: Structural Survival of the High-Performance Materials Sector: Dominance of Industrial OS and Management Actions

Chapter 1: Three Key Requirements for "Winning Companies" to Survive ~ Conditions for Establishing an "Industrial OS Dominance Structure" in the Semiconductor Materials Industry ~

1. Hegemony of the "Industrial OS" in the Advanced Electronic Materials Industry: A Four-Layer Dominance Strategy Integrating Customer Processes and Physical Infrastructure

1.1 Requirement 1: Dominance of Standards and Standardization and the Disappearance of Boundaries in Customer Processes (Dominance of Rule Layer and Customer Process Layer)

1.2 Requirement 2: Data-Accumulating Real-time Purification Technology Compatible with Customer Processes (Defense of Process Layer)

1.3 Requirement 3: Physical Defense and Elimination of Degradation Factors (Defense of Physical Layer)

2. The Irreversible Structure Created by the "Four-Layer Industrial OS Model"

Chapter 2: "Management Action Checklist" by 5 Major Departments

1. High-Level Adaptation to the "Dominant OS" and Organizational Optimization

2. Corporate Planning Department: Practical Framework for Withdrawal from General-Purpose Derivatives and Reallocation of Fixed Costs

3. SCM and Procurement Department: Multi-layered Procurement Strategy Assuming Domestic Cracker Shutdowns

4. Technology and Quality Assurance (QA) Department: Impurity Fingerprint DB and Hybrid Predictive Support System

5. Legal and Management Control Department: Control Design for Transaction Optimization (Toritekiho) and BCM Linkage

6. Points to Note During Implementation

※Detailed table of contents can be viewed from the link below.

🔗 Detailed Table of Contents / Purchase Page ▶

CMC Research Inc. (Chiyoda-ku, Kanda-nishikicho: https://cmcre.com/), which provides advanced technology and market information, offers seminars and publishes books on market and technology trends for various materials and chemicals.

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