US Expert: China's Gray-Zone Coercion Aims to Weaken Taiwan's Resilience, Targeting 2028 Presidential Election

(Central News Agency, Washington, 9th, reporter Hou Ziyin) Following the recent incursion of Chinese government vessels into Taiwan's eastern waters, using Japan-Philippines negotiations as a pretext, the US State Department on Monday urged Beijing to stop pressuring Taiwan. US experts pointed out that China's gray-zone coercion actions against Taiwan have surged dramatically in recent years, aiming to weaken Taiwan's social resilience. They analyze that this is Beijing's core objective from now until the 2028 Taiwan presidential election.

In this incident, Chinese government vessels used the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) negotiations between Japan and the Philippines as a pretext, deploying maritime police and patrol ships to intrude into Taiwan's eastern waters. Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration stated that it had pre-deployed vessels to monitor the situation throughout the entire process.

The Coast Guard Administration said on Monday (local time in Taipei) that five Chinese government vessels had already moved away from Taiwan's waters. However, during the incident, they had made false jurisdiction claims via radio to three passing commercial cargo ships, inquiring about port entry and exit information. Taiwanese coast guard vessels immediately responded sternly, stating, "China is violating international law; ignore the harassment."

A US State Department spokesperson, responding via email on background to a Central News Agency reporter on Monday afternoon, stated that the US supports its treaty allies Japan and the Philippines and encourages Beijing to resolve disputes peacefully, without resorting to coercion or force.

The spokesperson said, "We also urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure on Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan's democratically elected leadership."

Additionally, Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said in an interview that he believes China will rely on gray-zone coercion actions below the threshold of war "as a means to restrict and isolate Taiwan."

He analyzed that China is unlikely to use terms with international legal implications like "blockade," but will instead frame its actions as "administrative law enforcement" and other gray-zone narratives to mask actions that are inherently destabilizing and targeted at Taiwan and its political leadership.

Regarding US efforts to deter China's gray-zone coercion in the region, Singleton, a former US diplomat, said "more needs to be done."

He noted that there has been a "significant surge" in China's gray-zone coercion over the past few years, including not only incursions into Taiwan's airspace and waters but also cyber operations targeting Taiwan's interior. These involve spreading disinformation and attacks on critical infrastructure.

Singleton analyzed that the purpose of these tactics is to weaken Taiwan's social resilience. "I believe this is China's core objective from now until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2028," he said. (Editor: Tang Shengyang) 1150610