European Forecast Center: This Year's El Niño Strongest in 30 Years, Threatening Floods, Droughts, and Wildfires

PARIS (CNA, Paris, July 8, Comprehensive Foreign News) Top meteorologists said today that the current El Niño phenomenon may break previous records in overall strength, and affected regions will face extreme climate risks such as droughts and floods.

According to Agence France-Presse, El Niño expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale, stated that in his over 30 years of tracking El Niño, this year's event is different, with forecast models even pointing to an "extreme" level.

He said at a media briefing: "We have never seen all forecast models predict such a strong El Niño phenomenon so consistently, it's true."

Stockdale pointed out: "I expect it to set a new record, although it's not entirely guaranteed... but it would be surprising if it didn't set a new record."

El Niño typically peaks between November and February of the following year, and the resulting temperature spikes usually occur slightly later.

With human-induced climate change intensifying, the last El Niño already made 2023 the second-hottest year on record, and 2024 is set to be the hottest on record.

● Floods, Droughts, and Wildfires

U.S. meteorological agencies announced last month that El Niño had formed and was likely to strengthen to a historic intensity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated last week that El Niño would rapidly develop into a strong event between July and September.

The UN food aid agency appealed last month for funds to strengthen measures to cope with disasters brought by El Niño.

In Asia, El Niño years are often unusually dry, even bringing drought disasters. El Niño suppresses the South Asian monsoon, leading to a lack of crucial rainfall in India and neighboring regions, affecting hundreds of millions of people.

In Australia, El Niño increases the probability of drought, heatwaves, and wildfires, with the Australian continent experiencing unusually warm and dry conditions.

In parts of the Horn of Africa, El Niño often brings increased rainfall. However, large areas of southern, western, central, and eastern Africa typically experience drier-than-average conditions.

Some areas in western South America, including the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, often experience above-average rainfall during strong El Niño events, increasing the risk of floods and landslides.

In contrast, the El Niño weather pattern leads to drier conditions in northern Brazil, increasing the risk of wildfires in the Amazon. (Compiled by Chi Chin-ling) 1150708

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