What was the U.S. June CPI year-on-year rate?

The U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, down from 4.2% in May.

Why was the CPI slowdown unexpected?

The market expected a 3.8% increase, so 3.5% was seen as a positive surprise.

What will happen to gas prices?

Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have raised risks of renewed oil and gas price increases.

Will the Fed raise rates?

Markets price in a 51.9% chance of a September rate hike following the CPI data.

U.S. June CPI Rises 3.5% Year-on-Year, Slowing Faster Than Expected

Q: What about core CPI?

Core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, down from 2.9% in May.

Published Jul 14, 2026 10:55 PM ・ Updated Jul 15, 2026 1:07 AM ・ 5 min read ・ Source: CNA (Central News Agency)

The U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year, slowing more than expected. While driven by falling gasoline prices, renewed Middle East tensions cloud the outlook and keep a Fed rate hike this year possible.

(Central News Agency, Washington, July 14 -综合 international news) U.S. consumer price inflation in June slowed more than expected, but may offer little comfort to American households amid ongoing Middle East conflict, and does not rule out the possibility of a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.

According to Reuters, data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, after increasing 4.2% in May—the largest annual gain since April 2023—marking a slowdown greater than anticipated.

U.S. June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, reversing from a 0.5% increase in May.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast June CPI to rise 3.8% year-on-year and fall 0.1% month-on-month.

The June CPI slowdown primarily reflects falling gasoline prices from multi-year highs, following a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran last month. However, the ceasefire collapsed last week after a commercial oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering military strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows gasoline prices have stopped falling and rebounded, rising from a national average of $3.79 per gallon a week ago to $3.86 today.

Following the U.S. reimposition of a naval blockade on Iran, international oil prices surged to a four-week high, and U.S. gasoline prices may rise further.

Excluding volatile food and energy, the U.S. core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, down from 2.9% in May.

June core CPI was unchanged from the prior month, reversing from a 0.2% monthly increase in May.

Minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting, released last week, showed that Fed officials' concerns about inflation intensified last month.

The Fed decided in June to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but the latest forecasts indicate rising market expectations for a rate hike by the Fed this year.

According to CME's FedWatch, which tracks market expectations for Fed rate moves, financial markets priced in approximately a 51.9% chance of a rate hike in September before the June CPI data was released. (Compiled by: Liu Shuqin) 1150714

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Source: CNA (Central News Agency)
Category: Taiwan

U.S. June CPI Rises 3.5% Year-on-Year, Slowing Faster Than Expected

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