US-Israel Attack on Iran Drives Up Oil Prices, Affecting Brazil's Politics and Economy

CNN Brazil reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that if infrastructure were damaged, the consequences would extend beyond the Middle East, affecting global energy and economy, and vowed a "decisive counterattack."

This conflict has stalled diplomatic interactions between Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and US President Donald Trump. A planned visit to Washington in March was postponed, and negotiations on agricultural tariffs and market access issues are deadlocked. News website Terra analyzed that the obstruction of bilateral trade not only harms Brazilian exporters but also increases internal costs for the United States, highlighting the interdependence of the two countries in energy and agricultural supply chains.

The surge in energy prices has directly impacted the daily lives of Brazilians. Diesel prices rose by 45% in just 11 days, prompting the government to implement emergency tax cuts and export surcharges in an attempt to curb inflation. State-owned Petrobras announced a five-year plan to achieve diesel self-sufficiency to reduce import dependence and strengthen energy resilience.

O Globo pointed out that the war could also change the direction of Brazil's general election in October this year. With oil prices continuing to rise, the government faces pressure to adopt additional subsidies and emergency measures. Commentators believe that the election focus will shift from issues like democracy and corruption to "who can lead the country in a crisis," and the competition between Lula and the main right-wing candidate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, will inevitably be influenced by the international situation.

Analysis indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro continues the political line of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, and his political image is closely linked to Trump, reflecting the interaction between Brazil's right-wing camp and American conservatives. As global energy supply chains are impacted by the war, Brazil's energy policy and diplomatic choices not only concern domestic economic stability but will also affect Brazil's geopolitical role on the international stage. (Edited by Wei Shu) 1150407