US-Iran War Risk: Oil Spike to $180, Global Economy and Internet Disruption at Stake

Key news on the US-Iran war. As the Northern Hemisphere enters summer, air conditioning demand and travel will further strain the supply of crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, with global inventories declining at an unprecedented rate. Analysts warn that oil prices could surge again. Here is the latest on the impact of the US-Iran war on the international economy, financial markets, and people's livelihoods: ● Summer Peak Nears, Iran's Energy Crisis Enters a New Phase Nearly 80 countries worldwide have implemented emergency measures to cope with the upcoming summer peak in energy demand. Analysts warn that oil prices could surge again unless large quantities of oil can be re-exported through the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen, stated that his team is analyzing a scenario where Brent Crude prices soar to $180 per barrel, which would inevitably trigger high inflation and economic recession in many European and Asian countries. He told the Financial Times: "We are taking this possibility very seriously, although it is not our base case scenario at the moment. We are actually just barely holding on right now." ● Iran Threatens Submarine Cable Fees in Strait of Hormuz, Disruption Risk Becomes a New Strategic Tool After successfully blockading the Strait of Hormuz during wartime, Iran is now turning its attention to the invisible lifeline of the global economy: submarine cables. Tehran plans to charge fees for cables laid in the strait and has hinted at possibly interfering with data transmission, putting parts of Eurasia and the Middle East at risk of internet outages. CNN reported that the submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz transmit a large volume of internet and financial transaction data between Europe, Asia, and the Persian Gulf, and Iran wants to collect related usage fees from several of the world's largest tech companies. Iranian government-affiliated media have vaguely threatened that if companies refuse to pay, data transmission through the cables could be disrupted. Iranian parliamentarians also discussed a plan last week to consider measures against the cables connecting Arab countries with Eurasia. Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari announced on social media platform X last week: "We will charge for the internet cables." ● Japanese Poll: 70% Believe Government Should Call for Energy Conservation A recent national poll in Japan touched upon issues including energy. Regarding the insufficient supply of crude oil, 70.5% of respondents believe the government "should call for energy conservation." Kyodo News conducted a nationwide telephone poll from the 16th to the 17th of this month and announced the results on the 17th. The poll results also showed that 57.2% of respondents oppose Japan's export of lethal weapons.