Global Crude Oil Stocks to Fall Below 100 Days of Demand; 54 Countries Implement Emergency Energy-Saving Measures

Tokyo, May 25 (CNA) - With US-Iran negotiations at a stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, global crude oil stocks are projected to fall below 100 days of demand by the end of May, with experts warning that oil prices could surge again. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 54 countries and regions have already taken emergency energy-saving measures. A Nikkei Asia report cited Goldman Sachs, which estimates that global crude oil stocks, including private commercial stocks and strategic reserves, stood at about 101 days of demand at the end of April but will drop to 98 days by the end of May. Yulia Zhestkova of Goldman Sachs' commodity research department pointed out that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would take weeks to return to normal, and stocks could decline further by the end of June. "Visible stocks" observed by satellite data are expected to fall to 73 days by the end of May, a record low since data collection began in 2018. Including "hidden stocks" (mainly from non-OECD countries), the total is about 98 days, approaching the 90-day level mandated by the IEA. Since March 11, the IEA has been coordinating the release of strategic reserves among member countries. US WTI crude futures briefly exceeded $119 per barrel on March 9 but have since fluctuated around $100. While expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have helped lower prices, in reality, very few tankers can pass through, creating a daily supply gap of over 10 million barrels. Masato Maruyama, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, stated, "More market participants are realizing the severity of the stock decline. If this trend continues, oil prices could surge again." On May 10, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on the public to save fuel. However, Japan, which is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, has not yet publicly called for energy-saving measures.