131 Days of Iran War, Dubai Real Estate Prices Dipped Only 2.6% ― Free Release of 'Eminence Report' Analyzing 2026 H1 Market in 8 Chapters, 53 Pages

Eminence Luxe (Headquarters: Dubai, UAE, Representative: Kazutaka Mori), a real estate brokerage specializing in Japanese investors in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has released its semi-annual market report titled 'Eminence Report H1 2026 – Dubai Real Estate Market Analysis and Outlook' (8 chapters, 53 pages). The report is available for free on a dedicated webpage, including PDF, web version, and three related analyses (no registration required).

Three Key Points of This Release

① Dubai real estate transactions in H1 2026 totaled 85,998 deals worth ¥12.6 trillion — the second-largest volume in history, just behind the record-breaking previous year.

② Even during the Iran war, price index declines were limited to 2.6% from peak. Transaction volume bottomed in May — two months after the war began — and rebounded by +31.3% in June following the ceasefire agreement.

③ No price discounts on new builds; the market has shifted toward 'terms negotiation' including payment plans, registration fees, and yield guarantees.

Report Structure — 8 Chapters, 53 Pages

This report organizes the Dubai real estate market in H1 2026 into eight chapters, based on official data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and indices such as Property Monitor.

Chapter 1: Macro Environment — Dubai as a Market (P.06)

Chapter 2: H1 2026 Market Overview (DLD Official Data) (P.10)

Chapter 3: Special Feature: Impact of the Iran War — 131 Days from Outbreak to Ceasefire (P.21)

Chapter 4: Price and Area Analysis — Winners and Losers (P.30)

Chapter 5: Rental Market and Yields — A Quiet Turning Point (P.38)

Chapter 6: Monthly Details: May and June 2026 (P.42)

Chapter 7: The Reality of Japanese Investors — Our Completed Transactions: ~70 Deals, ~¥8 Billion (P.45)

Chapter 8: Outlook for H2 2026 — Three Scenarios (P.49)

[Chapter 1] Macro Environment — Dubai as a Market

This section outlines structural factors attracting global capital to Dubai, including tax policies (no personal income or capital gains tax), population growth driven by immigration, and the transparency of electronic land registration. It also explains Dubai’s position within the long-term price cycle since 2008 and the impact of yen depreciation (AED/JPY from 39.05 to around 44) on yen-denominated valuations.

[Chapter 2] H1 2026 Market Overview — ¥12.6 Trillion, 85,998 Transactions

Total transaction value in H1 reached ¥12.6 trillion (AED 286.4B) across 85,998 deals — the second-highest level in history, just after the record-setting previous year. Monthly trends showed January near record highs (¥3.18 trillion), May at the lowest (¥1.30 trillion), and June rebounding (+31.3% in volume). Approximately 75% of transactions were off-plan (new construction reservations), with the volume zone concentrated between ¥22 million and ¥66 million. The high cash transaction ratio — only one in every 4.5 deals involved a loan — is explained as a structural support against price declines.

[Chapter 3] Special Feature: Impact of the Iran War — 131 Days from Outbreak to Ceasefire

This chapter organizes the 131-day period from the war’s outbreak (February 28) to ceasefire agreement (April 7) and permanent ceasefire signing (June 19) into a timeline, analyzing impacts on transactions, prices, and rentals using monthly data. Even in March — the worst month during wartime — 13,258 deals worth ¥1.89 trillion were completed, with zero days of halted transactions, registrations, or handovers. No fire-sale-driven price collapse was observed in any indicator. The report also analyzes recent U.S.-Iran attacks as of July 13.

On pricing, Property Monitor’s Dubai City Index actually hit its annual high in March right after the war began, with adjustments by June limited to 2.6% from peak. The mechanism behind the delayed market bottom in May — two months after the war started — is also analyzed. The second edition (July 12) includes updated assessments reflecting the renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges in early July.

[Chapter 4] Price and Area Analysis — Winners and Losers

Over the past 12 months, villas in Palm Jumeirah rose +37.1%, while Dubai Festival City fell by ▲10.2%. This chapter explains the market’s polarization using area-specific data. Common traits among rising areas include supply constraints; declining areas share concentrated new supply. In absolute price terms, the highest (approx. ¥4.55 million/m²) and lowest (approx. ¥320,000/m²) areas coexist with a 14-fold range.

[Chapter 5] Rental Market and Yields — A Quiet Turning Point

The average gross rental yield for residential units was 6.58% (June). High yields in the 8–9% range are concentrated in affordable areas like Dubai Investments Park and International City, while rents in central areas such as Downtown and Dubai Marina have begun softening. This chapter outlines the reality of actual demand — over 60% of rental contracts are for annual rents under ¥3.52 million — and the need to align investment products with real demand.

[Chapter 6] Monthly Details: May and June 2026

This chapter micro-analyzes May (10,481 deals, ¥1.30 trillion), the low point of H1, and June (13,760 deals, ¥1.44 trillion), which saw a rebound. It also points out, based on local interviews, that the apparent decline in market share by major developers Emaar and DAMAC was not due to falling demand but a temporary freeze in new sales (February–June). In July, government-linked developers resumed sales, attracting buyers to popular projects.

[Chapter 7] The Reality of Japanese Investors — Our Completed Transactions: ~70 Deals, ~¥8 Billion

Based on our confirmed transaction data (approximately 70 deals, ~¥8 billion over the past year), we reveal the average profile of Japanese investors. Average purchase price: ~¥130 million (median ~¥88 million); unit type: ~50% are 1BR; off-plan ratio: 92%. Repeat rate was 42% (July 2025–June 2026, internal survey). These are micro-data unique to Japanese investors, not found in overseas market reports.

[Chapter 8] Outlook for H2 2026 — Three Scenarios

In addition to a base scenario assuming ceasefire maintenance (prices range-bound at high levels, ±3%), bullish and bearish scenarios are presented. Three cross-cutting issues to monitor — supply pipeline, pace of rent softening, and yen exchange rate dynamics — are also outlined.