Tokyo's 23 Wards Maintain High Liquidity, While Minato Ward Stalls – A Structural Shift Emerges in the Used Condominium Market

The Truth Behind the "Peaking and Decline" Argument Spreading in the Central Tokyo Condominium Market

Recently, a narrative has emerged in the central Tokyo condominium market suggesting that "prices have peaked or entered a declining phase." Particularly since the latter half of 2025, with signs of change appearing in price trends that had consistently risen until now, a sense of caution is spreading not only among market participants but also among general consumers.

However, this perception of "decline" does not necessarily accurately reflect the reality of the entire market. Rather, fluctuations in specific areas or price ranges may be distorting the overall impression. To correctly understand the market, a more micro-level analysis is essential.

The 23 Wards as a Whole Still Maintain High Liquidity

First, looking at the used condominium market across all 23 wards of Tokyo, its liquidity remains at a very high level.

Source: Fukushima Soken

Looking at indicators such as the number of days on the market and the number of price reductions, both remain stable at low levels, indicating a continued situation where properties "can be sold in a short period without price reductions."

This means that demand in the market remains strong, and a seller-advantageous environment continues. In particular, the presence of real demand from those looking to acquire homes is believed to be supporting this high liquidity. Structural factors such as the return of the population to the city center, an increase in dual-income households, and a preference for convenience in housing choices are generating stable demand.

Given this situation, concluding that "the entire market has entered a declining phase" is somewhat premature. From a macro perspective, at least for the 23 wards as a whole, the market can still be assessed as robust.

Declining Liquidity Becoming Apparent in Minato Ward

Source: Fukushima Soken

On the other hand, in Minato Ward, Tokyo, both the number of days on the market and the number of price reductions are trending upwards, indicating that properties are becoming "harder to sell" compared to before.

This not only means that the period until sale is lengthening but also indicates a situation where "buyers are hard to find even after price reductions," clearly showing a decline in liquidity. The emergence of such changes in Minato Ward, which has previously driven the market, is highly significant.

It is believed that the rise in price levels itself is a major contributing factor to this. Especially for high-priced properties, the pool of potential buyers is limited, which may be rapidly narrowing the base of demand.

<...