Second-Hand Condo Inventory Increases Inside the Yamanote Line: Inventory Shows a 'Shift Away from the City Center' and the Beginning of a Demand Shift

[Survey Overview]

Survey Period: January 2024 to March 2026

Survey Agency: Mansion Research Co., Ltd.

Target: Second-hand condominiums within the 23 wards of Tokyo

Sample Size: 182,367 cases

Methodology: Collected publicly available sales information for second-hand condominiums and aggregated it using statistical processing.

Changes in the Second-Hand Condominium Market Seen from Inventory Data

In the second-hand condominium market, the movement of 'inventory' is a highly crucial indicator. While transaction prices and price increase rates tend to attract attention, looking at how many properties are actually lingering in the market or what kinds of properties are beginning to go unsold provides a more realistic grasp of changes on the demand side.

Particularly in the recent Tokyo metropolitan second-hand condo market, 'qualitative changes in demand'—which are hard to see from price alone—are beginning to appear in the inventory data.

The Change of 'Rapid Inventory Surge' Progressing in Tokyo

Looking at the second-hand condominium market in Tokyo, clear changes are now becoming visible.

Until now, in central Tokyo, demand did not wane even as prices rose, and high-priced transactions continued, particularly for large-scale tower condos and in the bay area. Recently, however, the number of high-priced condos listed for sale has surged rapidly, and market inventory has begun to pile up significantly in tandem.

A particularly distinct feature is the increase in resale units in large-scale tower condominiums. During the past upward trend in market prices, there was a certain amount of acquisition for investment or speculative purposes, driven by the expectation that 'if you buy it, the price will go up.' However, as price increases have surpassed a certain level, sales aimed at securing profits or executing exit strategies have increased, leading to a rapid surge in supply to the market.

Normally, even if supply increases, inventory will not grow if demand is even stronger. However, in current Tokyo, demand is not keeping pace with the increased supply, resulting in a rapid accumulation of inventory. In other words, the number of 'people who want to buy' is relatively decreasing compared to 'people who want to sell,' indicating a gradual shift away from the previously seller-dominant market.

'High Unit Price Properties' Are the Ones Beginning to Go Unsold

What requires even more attention is the 'content' of the properties that are currently beginning to linger as inventory.

The properties showing decreased liquidity recently are primarily relatively new, high-priced properties and units with large floor areas. These properties inherently have a high unit price per tsubo (approx. 3.3 sq meters) and tend to have a large total cost. Particularly in central Tokyo, second-hand condo prices have risen so sharply over the past few years that they have begun to far exceed the price range that the traditional actual-demand demographic could afford.

In the past, properties meeting the conditions of being 'relatively new,' 'spacious,' and 'located in the city center' closed relatively smoothly, even if the price was high. Today, however, due to the impact of rising mortgage interest rates and increased living costs, the purchasing power of the actual-demand demographic is gradually beginning to show its limits. As a result, the trend that 'the higher the price range of the property, the longer the sales period tends to be' has become pronounced in the market.

Rather than simply a drop in popularity, it is more natural to view this as 'the speed of price increases beginning to exceed the acceptable range for actual demand.' Especially in the range exceeding a total amount of 150 million to 200 million JPY, the pool of potential buyers is significantly limited, making changes in the supply-demand balance more likely to manifest as increased inventory.

Furthermore, according to data visualizing the inventory trends of symbolic high-priced condominiums (average price of 80 million JPY or more), the trend of increasing inventory (decreased liquidity) is conspicuous, particularly inside the Yamanote Line and in the bay area, where high-priced properties are concentrated. This suggests that for the tower condos in the city center and bay area that have driven the market up until now, demand is finding it difficult to keep up with rising prices.

On the other hand, in peripheral areas of the city center where price levels are relatively moderate compared to the core, there are many condominiums where inventory is remaining stable at a certain level. This indicates the possibility that the actual-demand demographic, which prioritizes purchasing budgets, is beginning to flow from 'prime city center locations' to 'peripheral residential areas with access to the city center.'

In short, the current second-hand condominium market is not in a phase where it is 'slowing down uniformly across all areas,' but rather entering a phase where a clear difference in liquidity is beginning to emerge between 'areas where prices have risen too much' and 'areas staying within the price range supported by actual demand.'

Inventory Continues to Decrease in 3 Neighboring Prefectures

Conversely, looking at the second-hand condominium markets in Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa prefectures, a movement contrasting with Tokyo can be seen. In contrast to the increasing inventory in the city center, it appears that stable demand is underpinning these three neighboring prefectures due to an influx of the actual-demand demographic.