Deloitte Survey: U.S. Back-to-School Spending to Decline 6% Amid Economic Concerns

As economic uncertainty rises, American households are adopting a more cautious approach to back-to-school spending this year. According to Deloitte's latest survey, 57% of the 1,207 K-12 student parents surveyed expect the economic situation to worsen over the next six months—a new high since 2020.

Total Spending and Per-Student Expenditure Both Decline

The survey forecasts total U.S. back-to-school spending at approximately $30.4 billion this year. Adjusted for inflation, this represents a roughly 6% decline from last year. The average spending per student is expected to be $557, down from $570 last year.

While other institutions like PwC offer more optimistic projections (predicting average household spending around $922), Deloitte's data reflects consumer restraint under financial pressure.

High-Income Households Lead the Cutbacks

The report highlights a notable trend: high-income households earning over $100,000 annually are planning to reduce spending. Families earning over $200,000 are expected to cut spending by 20% compared to 2025. In contrast, households earning less than $100,000 anticipate increased spending due to rising prices.

By category, parents are prioritizing essentials like clothing, while spending on technology products such as laptops and smartphones is expected to drop sharply by 16%.

'Hyper Value-Seeking' Becomes the New Normal

Facing inflationary pressures, consumers are becoming more strategic. Many families are delaying purchases until closer to the start of school to wait for better deals. About one-third of parents are classified as 'hyper value-seekers,' maximizing their budgets through bulk buying, brand switching, and cashback websites. Additionally, around 70% of parents plan to participate in summer sales.

Retailers' Discount Wars

To attract cautious shoppers, retail giants like Walmart (WMT-US), Target (TGT-US), Kohl's (KSS-US), and Dollar General (DG-US) are ramping up discounts. For example, Kohl's is offering thousands of items under $25, while Dollar General provides over 70 school supplies priced under $1, aiming to capture market share during this key shopping season, which traditionally accounts for 2.3% of U.S. retail sales.

Deloitte partner Brian McCarthy notes that this value-seeking behavior is not a short-term reaction but a lasting mindset shift, as parents strive to make every dollar count.