Coinbase's Earnings Preview: Q2 Trading Volume May Fall Below $200 Billion

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States (COIN-US), is set to release its second-quarter earnings on July 30. However, the prediction market has already released conservative signals. Due to the continued decline in Bitcoin prices in the second quarter, trading activity has cooled, and the market expects Coinbase's trading volume to decline for the third consecutive quarter, and it may even fall below 200 billion dollars for the first time since the third quarter of 2024.

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe that there is a high probability that Coinbase's second-quarter trading volume will fall short of market expectations. According to the latest betting results, the probability of trading volume exceeding 1600 billion dollars is only about 41%, and the probability of exceeding 1700 billion dollars is even lower at 25%, below the 1685 billion dollars estimated by FactSet's statistical analysts. However, the probability of trading volume exceeding 1500 billion dollars is as high as 99%, indicating that the market still expects trading volume to maintain a certain level.

This prediction contract by Kalshi will be settled based on the data released by the research platform Fiscal.ai, and is therefore seen as an important wind vane for Coinbase's earnings outlook.

Coinbase's trading volume has always been highly correlated with Bitcoin prices. In the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, during the period when Bitcoin prices fell, Coinbase's trading volume also declined for two consecutive quarters. The second quarter Bitcoin price fell another 12%, making the market concerned that trading activity may be further suppressed.

Due to the weakening of the cryptocurrency market, Coinbase's stock price has fallen by more than 55% since October 2025, when Bitcoin hit a record high. The decline even exceeded the nearly 50% correction of Bitcoin during the same period, reflecting investors' concerns about trading revenue and profitability.

The market will next focus on the second-quarter earnings to be released on July 30. In addition to whether the trading volume meets expectations, investors will also pay attention to the management's latest outlook on the cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year, retail trading momentum, and institutional demand, in order to assess whether Coinbase can shake off recent operational pressures.

As of the deadline, Coinbase (COIN-US) fell 0.61% during trading on Monday (20th), with a share price of $156.16.