Taiwan Stock Market Reclaims Quarterly Line: SPIL, Yageo, Powerchip

I. Market Structure and Key Changes

Index Rebounds Strongly, But Volume Lags

The TAIEX surged 1,783 points to close at 44,232, forming a 'gap-up, volatile, higher close' pattern indicating a strong rebound.

Trading volume shrank to NT$836.9 billion, suggesting weak follow-through buying momentum and cautious investor sentiment.

Reasons for the Rebound

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease → Risk premium declines

Margin debt drops for two consecutive days, totaling ~NT$68.5 billion → Speculative positions are being liquidated

Large-cap stocks [TSMC (2330-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), Delta Electronics (2308-TW), Hon Hai (2317-TW), etc.] led the rally

Market Structure

Full AI supply chain rebounded (PCB, ABF, CPO, memory, equipment stocks)

This rally is largely technical in nature, following a deep correction

II. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Upper Resistance

Around 45,000 points (10-day + monthly moving average) forms a resistance zone

Further short-term gains may face pressure and volatility

Lower Support

Solid support exists between 40,000–42,000 points

Backed by national team buying, ETF inflows, and institutional funds

Conclusion

Short-term: Volatile rebound

Mid-term: Consolidation and bottoming

Long-term: Bullish trend remains intact

III. Historical Statistics and Win Rate Advantage

After past 'single-day drops ≥1,500 points':

5-day return: +4.88%

10-day return: +4.87%

20-day return: +7.9%

30-day return: +13.3%

40-day return: +18.6%

Win Rate

Probability of upside >90%

1-month win rate nearly 100%

Conclusion:

Statistically, rebounds after sharp declines show strong upside bias; short-to-mid-term outlook is positive

IV. Fundamentals and Industry Trends

AI Drives Long-Term Growth

AI is evolving from generative AI to agentic AI

Computational demand surges → Drives entire semiconductor supply chain

Capital Expenditure Surge

Global CSPs (Microsoft, Google, AWS, etc.)

2026: ~$805 billion

2027: ~$1.1 trillion (ongoing growth)

Taiwan’s Advantages

Complete supply chain (wafer → packaging → materials → systems)

Established as a global AI core hub

V. TSMC Key Indicators (Core of Bull Market)

EPS Forecast:

2026: NT$105–110

2027: NT$140–150

Growth Drivers:

AI demand is 'extremely strong'

Revenue growth revised upward to over 40% YoY

Technology Leadership:

N2P and A16 processes entering mass production

CoWoS capacity significantly expanded

Conclusion:

TSMC remains the core engine of Taiwan’s long-term bull market

VI. Sector Rotation and Main Trends

AI as Core Theme

ASIC design, AI servers

CPO silicon photonics, advanced packaging

Upstream Electronics

PCB / CCL / ABF substrates

Electronic Materials

Key Components

Passive Components

Memory

Equipment & Testing

Semiconductor Equipment

Test Interfaces

Other Strong Sectors

Industrial PCs

Defense

Petrochemicals (selective strength)

VII. Investment Strategy (Key Points)

Short-Term Strategy

Adopt 'sell high, buy low' spread trading

Avoid chasing rallies; wait for pullbacks to position

Watch resistance at monthly and quarterly lines

Mid-Term Strategy

Position into AI core stocks on pullbacks

Focus on 'deeply corrected + strong fundamentals' candidates

Long-Term Strategy

Maintain bullish stance on AI supply chain

Target low-base-turnaround stocks

VIII. Risk Warnings

Volume not expanding → Sustainability of rebound in question

Market confidence not fully restored

Technically still consolidating in resistance zone

International variables (geopolitics, interest rates) may still disrupt

IX. Conclusion

Short-term: Rebound with volatility

Mid-term: Bottoming with positive bias

Long-term: AI trend unchanged; 50,000-point target is just a matter of time

Key takeaway in one sentence:

'Market volatile, stock selection wins; AI remains the only battlefield'

Surge of 1,783 points

Words fail to capture the momentum

Today, Taiwan stocks reclaimed the quarterly line

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Which ones should be replaced with stronger performers?

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Source: Analyst Chen Xuejin, Luen Yuan Investment Advisory

The individual securities recommended and analyzed by our company

Have no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits.

Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks on their own.