Middle East Conflict Escalates: Brent Crude Oil Surpasses $95 for the First Time Since June 11

Benchmark global oil prices surged on Wednesday (22nd) amid escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and threats to Middle Eastern energy supplies, with Brent crude futures rising above $95 per barrel for the first time since June 11.

Investors are closely assessing the escalating military confrontation between the two nations and the threat of a Red Sea shipping blockade by Iran-backed Ansar Allah (Houthi militants), leaving energy markets in a state of high tension.

According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces have conducted strikes for 11 consecutive days on Iranian missile launch sites, drone launch facilities, and command centers, aiming to weaken its ability to threaten commercial shipping. Meanwhile, Tehran has launched retaliatory attacks on U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

Diplomatic prospects remain bleak, with U.S. President Trump stating he has 'no intention of meeting' Iranian officials, while Iran says only message exchanges are possible, ruling out any formal negotiations.

The market's greatest concern is the safety of key shipping lanes. Iran-backed Houthi militants have threatened to blockade the Red Sea, targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, forcing some oil tankers to reroute or remain stranded near Yemeni waters. ING analysts note that if ships are forced to reroute around the Suez Canal, round-trip travel time and costs between Asia and Europe will increase significantly.

Additionally, three oil tankers have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline in the Black Sea has suspended loading due to attacks, further intensifying concerns over Kazakh crude oil supplies.

Oil prices have risen over 20% this month, with the market showing a strong 'backwardation' structure, indicating extremely tight supply. Although the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected increase of 2.603 million barrels in crude oil inventories last week, this did not halt the upward momentum in oil prices.

Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Bernstein warn that if the Middle East conflict persists, oil prices returning to triple digits will become a reality the market must face.