【Large Volume Stock Review】Is the Taiwan Stock Market's Big Rebound Real or Fake?! 【Hsin Cheng】⊕⊕ Powerful Start! The '2 Key Factors' for the Next Wave Fully Revealed!

The Taiwanese stock market has shown a significant rebound, backed by long-term confidence in the growth of the AI industry. Tech stocks like TSMC and MediaTek performed strongly, with AI-related industries becoming the focus of capital. Market confidence is gradually recovering, with increased investment in AI-related industries.

The weighted index opened high and fluctuated today, closing up 592.91 points at 44825.78, with a turnover of 9826.46 billion.

Observing the fund movements of the three major institutions today, foreign investors bought 173.43 billion, investment trusts bought 169.92 billion, and self-operated dealers sold 23.97 billion. The three major institutions together bought 319.38 billion. Among them, foreign investors turned from selling to buying, self-operated dealers turned from buying to selling, and investment trusts have been buying for 21 consecutive days, buying a total of 2319.49 billion.

The four major US indices all closed higher on Tuesday, with market risk sentiment showing a clear recovery. Amid market expectations that US-Iran tensions are likely to resume negotiations and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are easing, safe-haven funds flowed back into tech stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.21%, the Nasdaq Index and the S&P 500 Index rose in sync, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed higher, indicating that market confidence is gradually stabilizing. Among them, AI chip stocks such as NVDA-US NVIDIA, AMD-US AMD, and AVGO-US Broadcom all rebounded, and TSM-US TSMC ADR surged 5.55%, driving the momentum of the semiconductor group to recover.

Driven by the strong rebound in US stocks, the Taiwanese stock market opened high today and once surged more than 1,000 points, reaching a high of 45,323 points, challenging the monthly high. It closed up 592.91 points at 44825.78, with a turnover of 9826.46 billion. The Taiwanese stock market has now returned to the quarterly and ten-day line highs. Foreign investors have turned from selling to buying, and investment trusts have been buying for 21 consecutive days. The current technical fund situation is favorable for the bulls. Overall, the driving force behind this rebound mainly comes from the market's confidence in the long-term growth trend of the AI industry, as well as the stabilization of the Asian stock market, which has reduced the risk aversion of foreign investors, and electronic heavyweight stocks have once again attracted buying back. However, although the Taiwanese stock market has returned to the quarterly line, the turnover has not significantly increased, indicating that market confidence has not yet fully recovered. In the short term, it is still a technical rebound after a sharp drop. In the future, if it wants to challenge the monthly line and the previous locked-in area, it still needs to observe the direction of foreign investors, the New Taiwan Dollar exchange rate, and the performance of US tech giants' financial reports. The demand for AI is too strong! <Export orders> 17 red! 952 billion in June, up 59.4% year-on-year, nearing a new high of nearly 60%. On the industry side, AI servers, semiconductors, memory, PCB, passive components, and military groups remain the focus of fund rotation. Among them, memory benefits from the rise of AI applications and demand recovery, becoming the direction of attention for institutions. Under the rebound of US tech stocks, the strength of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and the leadership of 2330-TW TSMC, the Taiwanese stock market maintains a volatile but bullish pattern in the short term. Operationally, it is suggested to eliminate the weak and keep the strong, focus on individual stocks with good fundamentals and growth themes, adopt a phased layout strategy, and control the holding water level.

In terms of heavyweight stocks, 2330-TW TSMC fell 0.41%, closing at 2400. It was reported that it will raise the wafer foundry price starting from 2027, with an increase of about 5% to 10% for advanced processes, and high-speed computing HPC chip orders may even incur an additional 10% to 15% cost. Mature processes may also see a rise of up to 10%, reflecting the increase in material, equipment, and overseas expansion costs. In response, TSMC stated that it does not comment on pricing issues and emphasizes strategic pricing, continuing to create value with customers. Under the strong demand for AI and the tight supply of advanced packaging production of CoWoS, price increases help improve profitability and support long-term capital expenditure and operational growth.

2317-TW Hon Hai rose 2.24%, closing at 251.5. IBM and Hon Hai's subsidiary Aban Supercomputer announced at the Think 2026 conference held in Singapore to deepen cooperation and jointly develop enterprise-level AI platforms, expanding the AI application ecosystem in the Asia-Pacific region. The two parties will, through the 'construction, operation, localization' model, help governments and regulated industries build a safe and reliable AI computing environment, accelerating the transition of AI from the testing stage to actual commercial applications. IBM stated that the key to future AI development lies in technological sovereignty, including data localization, open-source architecture, talent cultivation, and governance capabilities. This cooperation is expected to promote enterprise AI adoption, accelerate smart transformation, and drive business opportunities for the AI infrastructure supply chain.

2454-TW MediaTek rose 4.90%, closing at 3850. Benefiting from market news that Google is actively laying out the next-generation AI inference chip 'Frozen v2', the market is concerned about whether MediaTek can once again enter the ASIC supply chain, driving the stock to rebound from a deep fall. In addition to participating in the supply of Google TPU-related I/O die, MediaTek is also expected to benefit from the increased demand for ASIC chip foundry and backend packaging and testing next year, boosting revenue growth momentum. From a short-term technical perspective, the stock has shown the first confirmed K-bar of a rebound, and the market atmosphere has improved. If it can stand firm above the 20-day moving average of 3936 and break through 4000, with turnover expanding in sync, there is a chance to further challenge the high point of the wave. The layout of AI ASIC will become an important growth engine in the medium and long term.

In terms of individual stocks, 8112-TW Zhi Shang is a large domestic memory distributor, mainly acting as an agent for DRAM, NAND Flash, and other products. Memory-related business accounts for more than 90% of revenue. Benefiting from the recovery of demand for AI servers, high-performance computing, and end-users, operations continue to heat up. The company has recently benefited from the increased demand for HBM, high-speed memory, and enterprise storage, with revenue and profits growing in sync. In June 2026, the consolidated revenue reached 616.29 billion, setting a new historical high, up 231.17% year-on-year, demonstrating strong growth momentum. Institutions generally look optimistically at the improvement in supply and demand trends in the memory market driven by AI in the second half of the year, which is expected to help improve the company's performance. In addition, Zhi Shang has a high dividend theme, with stable dividend yield performance, combining the dual advantages of growth and income. The medium and long-term operational outlook continues to be bullish.

2026.7.17 Stock Market Queen Leading Forecast (3576-TW) United Regeneration

(3576-TW) United Regeneration, 17.6=>20.8, +18% after leading forecast,

(5483-TW) China-American Crystal joins hands with (3576-TW) United Regeneration to jointly invest in the establishment of a US solar module manufacturing company, planning to build a module factory with an annual production capacity of 1GW, with a total investment of approximately 40 million US dollars. China-American Crystal holds 51%, and United Regeneration holds 49%. The new company will combine China-American Crystal's advantages in solar cell technology and global manufacturing management with United Regeneration's experience in module manufacturing and market channels to build a local supply chain in the US. With the increase in green electricity demand in the US and Taiwanese enterprises accelerating their layout overseas, China-American Crystal is expected to expand the renewable energy market through this investment and deepen the dual-track layout of semiconductor materials and energy, adding long-term growth momentum.

2026.7.13 Stock Market Queen Leading Forecast (6505-TW) Formosa Plastics

(6505-TW) Formosa Plastics, 63.1=>92.8, +47% after leading forecast,

Formosa Plastics benefits from the rise in international oil prices and the rebound in petrochemical raw material prices, with the operational outlook for the third quarter turning optimistic. The company's second-quarter net profit after tax was 207.7 billion, and the cumulative profit for the first half of the year was 411.8 billion, turning from a loss to a profit compared to the same period last year. Recently, the prices of ethylene, propylene, and butadiene have risen simultaneously, which is expected to boost the profits of the light cracking business. Looking ahead, with the supply from refineries in the Middle East and Russia being limited and the summer demand being strong, the price difference between diesel and gasoline is expected to maintain a high level. In addition, the company is actively introducing the ethane cracking process, expected to start production in 2027, which is expected to reduce raw material costs and further improve profitability and competitive advantages.

2026.7.14 Stock Market Queen Leading Forecast (1810-TW) Hsin Cheng

(1810-TW) Hsin Cheng, 28.8=>34.15, members two days in a row stop high,

Hsin Cheng is the leading company in domestic sanitary equipment, mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of residential sanitary products. The main business belongs to a mature industry with relatively limited growth momentum. In recent years, the company has actively expanded into new fields such as carbon fiber composites and bulletproof ceramics, and has entered military applications such as armored vehicles and unmanned vehicle shells. With the theme of national defense autonomy and unmanned vehicle policy fermenting, it has attracted market capital attention. However, the new business is still in the initial stage of layout, and its contribution to revenue is not yet significant. The fundamentals still need to be continuously observed. In the short term, the stock price mainly benefits from the heating up of the military theme, and the market focuses on the theme of low base transformation. In the future, attention needs to be paid to the progress of orders and actual operating effects.

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