Hormuz Crisis Unresolved: Barclays Raises Oil Price Risk Assessment, Brent Crude Spot Price Could Hit $150

Barclays said on Friday that upward risks to international oil prices are increasing as the shipping standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues. The bank believes that if the current situation persists for one to three months, not only will the 2026 forecast for Brent crude face upward pressure, but spot prices could even test $150 per barrel.

Barclays maintains its forecast of an average Brent crude price of $96 per barrel in 2026 and $85 in 2027, but warns that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would create varying degrees of upside risk.

According to Barclays' scenario analysis, if supply disruptions last one month, the average 2026 Brent crude price would be about $2 per barrel higher than previously forecast. If the disruption lasts two months, the upside risk increases to $7 per barrel; if the standoff continues for three months, it could exceed the original forecast by $10 per barrel, implying an average 2026 oil price of $106 per barrel.

In its latest report, the bank noted that spot prices typically react faster than long-term averages. Therefore, if supply disruptions persist for three months, Brent crude spot prices could challenge $150 per barrel.

International oil prices rose above $100 per barrel this week for the first time since May, driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and near-total paralysis of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking market concerns over global crude supply disruptions. However, oil prices fell back below $100 per barrel on Friday as reports emerged that China is actively mediating peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy transport chokepoints. Barclays noted that prior to this round of conflict, about one-fifth of global energy supplies were transported through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any prolonged blockade could have a significant impact on global energy markets.

Meanwhile, a Reuters analyst survey shows that Middle East tensions have further deepened market expectations of a global crude supply shortage in 2026. However, most analysts still believe that with gradual recovery of Persian Gulf exports, strong U.S. crude production, and slowing Chinese demand growth, the global crude market could return to oversupply by 2027.

Barclays believes that future oil price movements will still heavily depend on developments in the Middle East, particularly whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal. If supply disruptions are prolonged, markets will reassess global energy supply and demand expectations, and oil price volatility could further widen.