Iran's Missiles Getting More Accurate? Experts: Chinese Satellite Imagery and Russian Tactics Are Key

As Middle East tensions escalate, Iran’s recent missile attacks on U.S. military bases and key facilities in the Persian Gulf have demonstrated significantly improved accuracy. Analysts suspect that behind this advancement lies support from Chinese satellite imagery and Russian tactical experience gained in Ukraine.

According to The Guardian, on Friday (24th), the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan was attacked, resulting in the deaths of three U.S. soldiers.

The base was protected by the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system, yet it failed to intercept the attack. Satellite images released by Iranian media afterward showed multiple buildings destroyed.

The Pentagon has launched an investigation into why the defense system failed, but the incident highlights that despite repeated U.S. claims of having severely degraded Tehran’s military capabilities, Iran’s missile strike capability remains a serious threat.

Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London, analyzed that enhanced intelligence gathering, improved missile guidance and mobility, and more precise attack coordination have combined to create a 'substantial shift.'

He stated this is the result of Iran’s three-year development of its ballistic missile program. Although Washington has claimed Tehran’s military capacity has been 'thoroughly destroyed,' U.S. intelligence assessments estimate that about 70% of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities remain intact.

Krieg pointed out that Iran’s first step involves using satellite imagery provided by China to identify targets such as U.S. military bases and other facilities in the Persian Gulf. In May, the U.S. imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies for supplying such satellite imagery.

One of them, Mizar Vision, publicly shared images showing U.S. military aircraft and Patriot and THAAD air defense systems deployed in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the Jordanian base attacked last week. These satellite photos spread widely on social media and were extensively shared.

However, not all experts agree that Beijing is directly providing intelligence support. Sidharth Kaushal, a scholar at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that Iran is primarily targeting fixed installations like U.S. military bases, which can be identified using commercial satellite imagery alone, without necessarily requiring military intelligence from China.

In addition to suspected Chinese imagery support, some U.S. analysts speculate that Iran’s precise strikes on multiple CIA facilities in the Persian Gulf may have benefited from location intelligence provided by Russia, though this remains speculative.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated this week in Congress that China and Russia are indeed assisting Iran to some extent.

However, President Trump contradicted this on Friday, asserting that both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin personally assured him they would not sell weapons to Iran.

Notably, Iran’s ballistic missile program heavily relies on electronic components from China and ammonium perchlorate used in rocket fuel. Yet, the assembled missiles now possess advanced performance, capable of penetrating U.S. and Gulf states’ air defense systems under certain conditions.

Iranian ballistic missiles use complex navigation systems, simultaneously utilizing the U.S. GPS, China’s BeiDou, and Russia’s GLONASS satellite navigation systems after launch. Additionally, their re-entry speed into the atmosphere can reach several times the speed of sound, posing a significant interception challenge for ballistic missile defense systems.

Krieg noted that Tehran has developed maneuverable warheads for some ballistic missiles, capable of adjusting their trajectory during the terminal descent phase. Furthermore, terminal guidance uses infrared heat-seeking and optical navigation, which do not rely on radio communication and are thus less vulnerable to electronic jamming.

These capabilities pose a major challenge to U.S. air defense systems, especially as Patriot and THAAD interceptor missile inventories are reportedly depleted by about half following the 38-day joint U.S.-Israeli military operation earlier this spring.

Moreover, U.S. forces must simultaneously defend numerous critical infrastructure sites such as energy facilities, oil refineries, and desalination plants, further increasing defensive pressure.

On the tactical level, Iran’s missile attack methods are also evolving, adopting tactics similar to those used by Russia in Ukraine. Instead of large-scale salvos, smaller, staggered missile attacks are sometimes more effective. Additionally, drones are deployed first to draw out air defense fire, followed by the main ballistic missile strike.

Kaushal believes this reflects a 'convergent evolution' where both militaries learn from each other’s combat experiences, rather than Moscow directly teaching tactics to Tehran.

Although Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea have formed a degree of cooperation based on shared anti-Western stances—dubbed by some as the 'Axis of Upheaval'—this bloc remains far from a cohesive military alliance.

Matthew Savill, defense analyst at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated: 'There is indeed some cooperation among them, but it does not generate the massive integrated synergistic benefits seen in NATO.'