13x Upside Potential? Analysts Raise ChangXin Memory's Target Price to 116 RMB

China's DRAM industry leader, ChangXin Memory, made its debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market on Monday (27th), setting multiple market records. The stock's initial public offering (IPO) price was 8.66 RMB per share, but it surged to 49.50 RMB at opening, representing an increase of over 470%. By the morning session's close on its first trading day, ChangXin's share price reached 54.5 RMB, expanding its gains to over 530%. The single-day trading volume exceeded 120 billion RMB, setting a new historical high for daily turnover in the A-share market.

Its market capitalization briefly reached 3.66 trillion RMB, surpassing both Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Kweichow Moutai, making ChangXin the new 'A-share king' in terms of market value.

As China's only integrated device manufacturer (IDM) capable of mass-producing DRAM at scale, ChangXin's global market share has risen from 3% to nearly 8%. According to company-disclosed data, revenue for the first half of 2026 is projected to reach between 110 billion and 120 billion RMB, representing an annual growth rate exceeding 600%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fall between 50 billion and 57 billion RMB.

ChangXin stated that its performance growth is primarily driven by a recovery in the memory industry, optimization of its product mix, and the realization of economies of scale. Currently, the company's product line is undergoing significant structural adjustments. While LPDDR series chips for mobile devices were previously the main revenue driver, the revenue share of DDR series products, benefiting from the surge in AI server demand, has jumped from earlier lows to over 30%.

Additionally, market reports indicate that Apple is testing ChangXin's DRAM chips for its entry-level iPhone models. If the two parties successfully establish a partnership, ChangXin could officially enter the global mainstream supply chain.

Investor and Investment Bank Perspectives: The Debate on High Valuation and Growth Potential

International investment bank Nomura Securities has expressed extremely high expectations for ChangXin Memory. In its first research report, it issued a 'Buy' rating and set a target price of 116 RMB. Nomura hailed ChangXin's DRAM chips as the 'crown jewel of China,' forecasting that its revenue will reach 773.3 billion RMB by 2028, with net profit challenging 393.1 billion RMB.

Regarding ChangXin's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, semiconductor investor Chen Qi pointed out that Nomura's assignment of approximately 20x forward P/E has logical grounding. He analyzed that Micron's historical median P/E ratio is around 10x, while the A-share semiconductor sector typically commands a premium of about 2x compared to its U.S. peers, placing a 20x P/E ratio within a reasonable range.

Chen Qi further emphasized that ChangXin's true value lies in its ability to compete on equal footing with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, symbolizing that China's memory industry has formally gained global话语权 (voice).

However, more cautious voices exist in the market. A long-term observer of China's semiconductor industry pointed out that Nomura's bullish target price exceeding 100 RMB implies the market capitalization must sustain above 7 trillion RMB, which appears overly aggressive and may 'preempt at least three years of future growth.'

Geopolitical and Industry Cycle Risks

Despite high market sentiment, ChangXin Memory still faces multiple external risks. Nomura's report specifically warns that U.S. legislation banning key equipment (such as lithography and etching tools) and materials like photoresist poses the primary threat to the company's development. In extreme scenarios, this could lead to a significant reduction in revenue and net profit for 2027 and 2028.

Furthermore, the memory industry is characterized by strong cyclical patterns. The aforementioned investor warned that historically, memory product prices have experienced extreme drops of up to 90% within one to two years when market conditions reversed.

He emphasized that the nature of the memory industry is such that during periods of expansion, capacity investment is virtually unlimited, but demand can suddenly cease. Therefore, how ChangXin maintains strict financial discipline and avoids the risk of overexpansion during its high-speed growth will be a critical test for its long-term sustainability.