US Stocks Surge Overnight! But This Unresolved Risk Remains

US stocks staged a strong rebound after consecutive days of correction, with the Dow Jones rising 1.19%, the Nasdaq up 2.78%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 8.19%. Technically, the indices found support at the six-month moving average and prior key candlestick levels, quickly forming a strong bullish gap-up candle, signaling a clear reversal. Micron surged 18.36%, and TSMC's ADR climbed 7.64%, driving a broad recovery in semiconductor stocks and triggering a sharp gap-up rally in Taiwan's market. This rally was not merely driven by positive news, but by a confluence of panic selling, margin deleveraging, and short covering, resulting in rapid position turnover and a classic short squeeze following a sharp decline.

The market's biggest concern remains the AI bubble, but at this stage, it cannot simply be dismissed as 'overvaluation.' Companies are actively issuing shares and raising capital through IPOs, raising concerns about profit-taking at elevated levels. However, after a round of correction, tech stocks' forward P/E ratios have clearly declined, and market sentiment has not reached full euphoria. Goldman Sachs maintains an 8,000-point year-end target for the S&P 500 and forecasts corporate earnings growth of 24% in 2026 and 13% in 2027, indicating fundamental support remains. The real risk to watch is the traditional volatile period from August to October, when Fed meetings and the U.S. midterm elections could create policy uncertainty, making the recovery more volatile.

Looking at tech giants' earnings, AI investment remains strong, but the market is now demanding clearer monetization. Microsoft reported revenue of approximately $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with its Intelligent Cloud segment growing 43%, proving strong enterprise AI and cloud demand. Amazon's quarterly revenue surpassed $200 billion, with AWS up 37% year-over-year and unfulfilled orders continuing to rise. Despite capital expenditures increasing 69% year-over-year and pressure on free cash flow, long-term momentum remains promising. In contrast, Meta faces skepticism over disappointing guidance, rising costs, and declining cash flow. Qualcomm is affected by rising memory prices and weak smartphone demand. Apple's hardware sales were strong, but performance in Greater China and its services business fell short of expectations, indicating the market has shifted from 'willing to burn cash' to 'demanding effective profitability.'

While Taiwan's V-shaped recovery is encouraging, investors should avoid chasing prices. After a rapid rise, the index may face resistance at the quarterly moving average, gap fill pressure, and interference from futures settlement. Taiwan futures briefly showed a positive spread of several hundred points, but it must be confirmed whether this was due to aggressive long buying or actual foreign short covering. Investors should use the rebound to reduce margin positions and high-P/E weak stocks, hold core holdings with strong fundamentals and stable positioning, and wait for pullbacks to deploy capital in stages. Rather than fixating on individual losing positions, investors should evaluate performance holistically, strengthen portfolios through selective trading and strategic capital allocation, capture the long-term trends in AI and semiconductors, and reserve safety margins for the high volatility expected from August to October.

Amazing! Today, Taiwan stocks surged 3,186 points. Yesterday, I led my members to aggressively position in 00631L, which today soared 18.6%. Tell me, isn't that exciting!

But while celebrating, the recent market plunge was a nightmare for most investors. Passive components, silicon wafers, substrates, and memory stocks were either halved or severely beaten down. Fortunately, back in June, I had already led my members to fully exit our positions in passive components and memory stocks, booking over 100% gains and avoiding this downturn. After I publicly shared this move in a video, many people told me they wished they had joined my membership earlier.

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The individual securities recommended and analyzed by our company have no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, conduct careful evaluations, and assume investment risks on their own.