Memory Prices Soar, But Can't Stop It! AI Enters the Agent Era, RTX Spark Drives PC Industry's Counter-Trend Boom

Global AI is rapidly transitioning from generative models to autonomous decision-making agent-type AI. To avoid the high costs of cloud computing, on-premise (on-device) processing has become a major trend. Although soaring upstream memory prices are suppressing short-term shipment volumes, the emergence of the groundbreaking RTX Spark chip enables seamless operation of on-device AI agents, positioning it as a powerful driver for a counter-trend surge in PC industry output value.

On-Device AI Agent Revolution: RTX Spark Ignites the Upgrade Wave

The new chip architecture RTX Spark (N1X), co-developed by NVIDIA and MediaTek, integrates the Blackwell GPU, a 20-core Grace CPU, and 128GB of unified memory, manufactured using TSMC’s 3-nanometer process. This chip enables smooth execution of agent-type AI directly on Windows endpoint devices, significantly accelerating large language model generation speeds while saving on costly cloud token fees. AMD has also responded to the on-device inference trend by launching the Ryzen AI Halo, a portable solution capable of running 200-billion-parameter models locally.

Memory Surge Suppresses Shipments, but CSP Capex Increases Provide Support

Upstream memory markets are experiencing sharp price hikes due to HBM demand squeezing DRAM production. The cost share of DRAM in PCs is projected to skyrocket from 7.5% in Q2 2025 to 45% in Q2 2026. In response, PC brand manufacturers are passing on costs through 15–20% price increases and reducing promotions. As a result, the total PC industry output value is still forecast to grow approximately 5% in 2026, defying downward pressure. Meanwhile, major CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) have sharply revised their 2026 capital expenditures upward by 85.9% (reaching $770 billion), driving a recovery in general-purpose servers and explosive shipments of CSP-developed ASIC chips. Additionally, NVIDIA’s 50-series GPUs are delivering excellent cost-performance, injecting strong momentum into both server and gaming markets.

Motherboard and PC Makers Reap Dual Benefits, Long-Term Structural Growth Expected

Motherboard and PC manufacturers are seeing significant profit improvements driven by two factors: AIPC specification upgrades and massive demand for AI servers. ASUS (2357-TW) expects continued high-speed growth in its server business, fueled by the successful VR200 product line. The launch of the high-end ProArt P16, optimized for RTX Spark, is projected to substantially boost revenue and profits by 2027. Gigabyte (2376-TW), a pioneer in AI servers, anticipates increasing AI server revenue share this year and next, and plans to launch RTX Spark-powered products in Q1 next year to capture on-device market opportunities. MSI (2377-TW) has seen a significant rebound in gross margins due to eased competition in gaming laptops and a strategic shift toward premium products, while its server revenue has also multiplied. ASRock (3515-TW) secured major AI server orders from a European client, raising its server revenue share to 70%. With soaring memory prices, customers are less aggressive in price negotiations, further improving overall margins. Investors are encouraged to download the "Analyst Chen Zhi-Lin APP" and follow live streams to stay ahead of frontline industry dynamics.

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Article Source: Analyst Chen Zhi-Lin / Kaixu Investment Consulting

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