South Korea Memory Prices Surge Again! TrendForce: Traditional DRAM and NAND Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs – Who Will Benefit?

The global memory market is experiencing another wave of price increases. Industry analysis indicates that artificial intelligence (AI) servers and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are continuously consuming existing production capacity, leading to increasingly tight supply of traditional memory chips. This tightening trend may not have reached its peak yet.

According to Yonhap News Agency, the latest statistics from DRAMeXchange, a subsidiary of market research firm TrendForce, show that the average spot price of DDR4 8Gb, commonly used in personal computers, rose to USD 24 in July, a monthly increase of 14.3%, setting a new historical high since statistics were first compiled in June 2016. Meanwhile, the average price of 128Gb MLC NAND flash memory also surpassed the USD 30 threshold for the first time, similarly breaking records.

TrendForce forecasts that as demand for AI servers and HBM continues to expand, displacing traditional DRAM production capacity, the market's supply-demand imbalance could persist until 2027.

In contrast, the NAND market is expected to show signs of improvement in the second half of 2027 as new production capacity gradually comes online.

As major manufacturers accelerate their shift toward high-layer-count products and new factory capacity is progressively released, bit supply growth is expected to outpace demand by 2026.

TrendForce projects a 4–5% supply deficit in the NAND market in 2026, but the supply-demand balance is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2027, gradually easing supply constraints.

However, weakening demand from consumer electronics end markets remains a key variable. TrendForce predicts global smartphone production will decline by 15 to 20% year-on-year in 2026, with notebook shipments expected to drop by approximately 10%. A slight contraction may continue into 2027.

Smartphones and notebooks together still account for nearly 40% of total NAND demand, making softness in the consumer market a major driver behind the reversal in NAND supply and demand.

DRAM and NAND Prices Surge Over 100% Year-to-Date

Looking back at price trends this year, the strength of the memory price surge has stunned the industry.

The average price of DDR4 8Gb rose from USD 11.5 in January to USD 24 in July, more than doubling in just over half a year with a cumulative increase of 109%.

Between April and May alone, prices jumped from USD 16 to USD 20, and continued to set new historical highs into the third quarter.

The price surge in the NAND market has been even more dramatic. The average price of 128Gb MLC NAND rose from USD 9.46 in January to USD 30.05 in July, a staggering cumulative increase of 218%.

Notably, certain SLC NAND products saw monthly price increases of 35% to 51% in July, far exceeding the 4% to 8% rise seen in MLC NAND, highlighting the widening supply-demand gap across different product lines.

However, after more than a year of price hikes significantly increasing downstream procurement costs, TrendForce has observed that end customers are adopting a more conservative purchasing stance, with reduced willingness to chase higher prices.

TrendForce expects third-quarter PC DRAM contract prices to rise 13–18% quarter-on-quarter, a significant slowdown from the 58–63% increase seen in the second quarter.

AI Servers Drive Price Hikes – Suppliers Gain Negotiating Edge

The fundamental cause of this price surge lies in structural shifts on the supply side.

As demand for AI servers grows explosively, major memory manufacturers are prioritizing capacity allocation to higher-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and high-stack 3D NAND, significantly reducing supply of traditional PC DRAM and mature-process NAND.

Additionally, the world's four major cloud computing giants—Microsoft (MSFT-US), Amazon (AMZN-US), Alphabet (GOOGL-US), and Meta (META-US)—continue to expand their investments in AI infrastructure, driving HBM and server DRAM demand to new highs.

In the current DRAM supply shortage, downstream customers have already signed multi-year long-term agreements with Samsung Electronics (KR005930), SK Hynix (000660KS), and Micron Technology (MU-US) to secure priority supply. HBM capacity is now almost entirely sold out through the end of 2026, with most of 2027's capacity already pre-booked by major customers.

At the same time, AI has shifted memory chips from 'price competition' to 'capacity and technology competition.' This is not a short-term supply-demand imbalance, but a structural transformation driven by the reallocation of resources in the AI era.

The memory industry has completely moved beyond the previous cycle of 'price wars,' 'inventory overhang,' and 'loss-making competition.' Today's market discussion is no longer about who will lower prices, but who can still secure supply.

TrendForce expects server products to continue absorbing DRAM capacity, making PC DRAM supply even tighter.

Although rising notebook prices have begun to dampen end-user demand, suppliers still hold a clear advantage in price negotiations due to the ongoing supply shortage.

The NAND market is undergoing a similar structural shift. Manufacturers are continuously shifting capacity toward enterprise SSDs and high-layer 3D NAND, leading to persistently tight supply of traditional NAND products.

Among these, SLC NAND, which has low inventory levels, faces the tightest supply-demand conditions, with prices significantly outperforming MLC products. SLC NAND is widely used in automotive electronics, networking equipment, and industrial control applications.

How Should Investors Position Themselves?

Analysis indicates that as demand for AI servers and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continues to rise, the three major global memory manufacturers—Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron—remain the most direct beneficiaries. All three companies have surpassed a market capitalization of one trillion USD, marking a new milestone for the semiconductor industry.

Among them, SK Hynix maintains its market leadership thanks to its technological and mass-production advantages in HBM, currently holding a market share of approximately 58%, with order visibility extending several years into the future.

Samsung holds the largest global market share in both DRAM and NAND Flash and plans to further increase capital expenditure on its memory business in 2026 to expand advanced production capacity.

Micron continues to adjust its product mix, with approximately 70% of its capacity now dedicated to HBM and high-end server memory to meet AI market demand.

Additionally, as the three major manufacturers concentrate advanced processes and capacity on HBM, mature products such as DDR3, DDR4, LPDDR, and those used in automotive and industrial control applications are experiencing relatively tight supply, creating opportunities for other players to enter the market.

For example, Chinese DRAM manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (688825-CN) has expanded rapidly in recent years, increasing its global market share from approximately 3% in Q1 2025 to about 7.7% in the same period of 2026, rising to become the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier—demonstrating that the mature-process market still holds growth potential.

Analysis suggests that as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to increase investment in HBM and advanced DRAM capacity, and Chinese firms such as CXMT and Yangtze Memory accelerate their expansion, platform-based semiconductor equipment suppliers will benefit first.