US AI Stocks Face 'Hard Threshold' This Week! Wall Street Forecasts 85K July Nonfarm Payrolls, Kalshi Bets on 70K Range

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release July's nonfarm payrolls data this Friday (the 7th). Dow Jones economists unanimously forecast 85,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, while the median in a Reuters survey falls between 83,000 and 85,000. Optimistic voices like Barclays project 100,000 new jobs, compared to only 57,000 in June and a 4.2% unemployment rate. The market is effectively betting on a 'moderate slowdown without collapse.'

For global equity bulls, especially in the semiconductor and AI computing chain, Friday's data marks the first 'hard threshold' after the violent rebound at the end of July. After June's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled to just 57,000, the resulting 'dovish shift in rate hike expectations' gave the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index breathing room.

The ideal scenario is a 'Goldilocks' combination: 70,000 to 100,000 new jobs, stable unemployment at 4.2% to 4.3%, and continued wage moderation. This would confirm that consumer spending and corporate profits are not sliding into recession, while avoiding pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to strengthen its rate hike path. Lower real interest rates and discount rates would benefit long-duration, valuation-sensitive stocks such as HBM, networking, and AI application equities.

However, paid prediction markets are outpacing Wall Street. Real-money bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket assign only a 47% chance of over 80,000 new jobs in July, about 60% for over 70,000, 41% for over 90,000, and slightly over one-third for exceeding 100,000. The probability of fewer than 60,000 jobs is also around one-third.

Last month, Kalshi had priced in a 63% chance of June's figure exceeding 125,000, but the actual number was just 57,000—showing that prediction markets can also misfire.

On the other hand, if payrolls exceed 100,000 and wage growth re-accelerates, the Fed's September rate hike probability (currently around 64% to 68%) and long-term bond yields could rebound. The 30-year Treasury yield has already touched 5.24% to 5.27%, and high-valuation AI stocks may not withstand a second wave of rate shocks.

If the number falls below 60,000, with rising unemployment and shrinking work hours, bond markets may initially rally, but the narrative would quickly shift to 'earnings recession.' Cyclical, financial, and export-linked sectors would be hit first.

Oil prices closed down about 5% on Monday (the 3rd), and falling U.S. Treasury yields helped push the S&P 500 up 1.48% and the Nasdaq up 2.13%. The current equity rally relies on the convergence of three bullish factors: 'lower oil prices, lower rates, and resilient tech earnings.'

Experts note that the nonfarm payrolls report is not just another positive data point—it's the watershed moment that could elevate the technical rebound after July's leverage liquidations into a new phase of rising risk appetite, or send markets back into high-volatility correction mode.