Stock Price Drops Over 40% from Peak! SpaceX's First Earnings Report to Reveal AI, Starlink, and Starship Performance

SpaceX (SPCX-US) will release its second-quarter financial results for the 2026 fiscal year after market close on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, Eastern Time. The market anticipates that the results could trigger significant stock price volatility, with particular focus on three key figures: AI-related revenue, losses, and capital expenditure.

Led by the world's richest man, Elon Musk, the company currently has a market capitalization of approximately $1.4 trillion—down from a peak of $3 trillion just weeks earlier. The current stock price stands at 35 times the estimated revenue for 2026, making this earnings report a major market focal point.

Colin Canfield, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, noted that market expectations are highly divergent. "Almost no one truly knows what numbers will be revealed," he said, warning that the actual results could significantly deviate from market forecasts.

AI Financial Metrics and Outlook

SpaceX currently divides its business into three divisions: Space (rocket launches and the Starship program), Connectivity (the Starlink satellite network), and AI (primarily the xAI business integrated in February 2026).

Among these, the AI division is attracting the most market attention. In Q1 2026, it generated $818 million in revenue but incurred an operating loss of $2.5 billion, with single-quarter capital expenditures reaching $7.7 billion.

The market will focus on three key indicators: whether AI revenue is growing rapidly, whether losses are narrowing, and whether AI-related capital spending continues to expand.

SpaceX has already signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google (GOOGL-US). Of these, the Google contract has not yet contributed to revenue, while the $1.25 billion monthly leasing agreement with Anthropic is gradually ramping up in May and June. However, the actual recognized revenue and profit margins remain unclear.

Investors will also pay close attention to SpaceX's outlook for the second half of 2026 and 2027 for its AI business, as well as the testing timeline for deploying low-cost AI computing satellites using Starlink.

Starship Progress and Starlink Users

Starship completed its 13th flight test in July. The market will be watching for when the 14th test will occur and the scale of Starship's R&D expenditures.

In Q1, SpaceX invested approximately $1.1 billion in new facilities and equipment for its space division. The space division's 2025 revenue was $4.1 billion, with an operating loss of $657 million. Falcon 9 conducted about 36 rocket launches in Q2, most of which were Starlink missions. However, these are not recognized as revenue for the space division, so the market is expected to continue focusing on AI and Starlink rather than rocket launch operations.

Regarding Starlink, the global subscriber count reached 10.3 million by the end of Q1, more than doubling from approximately 5 million a year earlier. The service generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion.

The market will monitor Starlink's subscriber growth rate, average revenue per user (ARPU), and enterprise and government customer orders. Canfield expects SpaceX to disclose more detailed operational metrics on Starlink for the first time.

Canfield anticipates that this earnings report will exceed market expectations and that the full-year profit outlook could be revised upward.

Currently, Wall Street's average forecast estimates Q2 revenue at $6.9 billion and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) at $2.1 billion. For the full year, revenue is estimated at $39 billion and EBITDA at $17.3 billion. However, market forecasts remain highly divergent.

Unlock Sell-Pressure Remains a Stock Price Concern

SpaceX shares dipped as low as $104.83 during Monday's trading session, marking a new post-IPO low, but closed up 5.68% at $114.53. Even so, the closing price remains 43% below the historical closing high of $201.80 set on June 16, shortly after its IPO.

One concern stems from the approaching expiration of the IPO lock-up period. According to plans, approximately 912 million shares will be unlocked on August 6, followed by another 319 million shares about a week later.

The market fears that early investors may take profits, creating selling pressure on the stock. However, some analysts believe the market typically prices in known events in advance, so a new wave of selling may not necessarily follow the actual unlock.