Washington Think Tank CSIS: Trump’s Repeated Failure to Follow Through on Iran Threats Signals U.S. Weakness

Mona Yacoubian, Middle East Program Director at the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warned on Monday (the 3rd) that the Trump administration’s repeated issuance of the 'toughest threats' against Iran—followed by last-minute cancellation of strike actions—has led Tehran to interpret such behavior as a sign of American weakness, believing itself to hold the strategic advantage in U.S.-Iran confrontations.

She said: 'Every time he does this, the signal Iran receives is: America is weak, and Iran has the upper hand.'

Yacoubian also outlined the current cyclical pattern of 'military escalation → announcement of diplomatic breakthrough followed by failure → return to mutual threats.'

She argued that this 'cry wolf' approach undermines the credibility of U.S. deterrence and emboldens Iran to endure through election cycles and periods of ammunition depletion.

Yacoubian further pointed out that a key factor behind the U.S.’s most recent decision to delay strikes was pressure from Persian Gulf allies—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—who feared Iran would retaliate without hesitation against regional infrastructure and energy hubs, potentially triggering an immediate explosion of risk in the Strait of Hormuz, thus urging the White House to hit the brakes.

Analysis suggests that Trump’s negotiation tactic of 'maximum pressure followed by last-minute retreat' might work in commercial bargaining, but against an Iranian regime with a higher threshold for enduring pain, it highlights the political costs of U.S. military options: approaching midterm elections, oil price sensitivity, and declining ammunition stockpiles. Iran, meanwhile, internalizes 'America won’t strike' as a psychological advantage, raising its demands simultaneously across nuclear negotiations, strait passage rights, and proxy warfare fronts.

Market and diplomatic observers interpret that if deterrence credibility continues to erode, the next phase of risk lies not in 'how hard the U.S. will hit,' but in 'how aggressively Iran will strike first'—from drone harassment to targeted attacks on energy facilities, the region’s powder keg is only growing more volatile.