Mysterious $20 Million SpaceX Options Block Trade Before Earnings! Who's Betting on $330 by Friday?

SpaceX (SPCX-US) is set to release its first earnings report since going public, but the options market has already seen an extremely unusual trading pattern. A massive concentration of capital has flowed into call options with a strike price of $330, expiring this Friday (7th), leading Wall Street to speculate this isn't simply a bet on a stock price surge, but potentially a hedging mechanism by large financial institutions against extreme market volatility.

These call options now have over 450,000 open interest contracts, at least seven times the volume of the second most popular contract in the same options chain. The total position size linked to these contracts is approaching $20 million, though this does not mean a single buyer injected $20 million at once, but rather represents an overall position built through multiple transactions.

On Monday alone, about 90,000 contracts were purchased through hundreds of trades, indicating the related position is still rapidly increasing. Notably, SpaceX's stock price was around $119.59 at the time, meaning a rise to $330 by expiration would require an increase of approximately 176%, equivalent to the stock price nearly tripling in just a few days.

Given the significant distance between the strike price and the current stock price, this position is unlikely to be a simple retail investor bet on SpaceX's stock price soaring to $330 this week.

Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytics firm SpotGamma, assessed that based on the accumulation pattern and position structure, the buyer is unlikely to be a retail investor, hedge fund, or broker-dealer proprietary trader, but more likely a major Wall Street bank.

Kochuba speculated that investment banks may hold structured products linked to SpaceX's stock price, or have short exposure related to stock and options volatility, and are therefore buying deep out-of-the-money call options as insurance against a sudden sharp rise in SpaceX's stock price.

Since the premiums for these contracts are relatively cheap, even if the stock price doesn't reach the strike price, such institutions can control potential losses in extreme market conditions at a lower cost.

In other words, $330 may simply be a level used to define the hedging range, not necessarily reflecting the buyer's actual expectation that SpaceX will reach that price by Friday.

Jay Pestrichelli, investment manager at Tidal Financial Group, further pointed out that this position doesn't need to wait for SpaceX's stock price to reach $330 to become profitable. If the stock price rises sharply after the earnings release, driving up implied volatility, the market price of the call options themselves could increase significantly, allowing holders to sell the contracts for a profit before expiration.

According to Pestrichelli's estimates, if SpaceX's stock price rises by about $100 to around $215 by Wednesday morning, under specific price movements and volatility conditions, these call options could already turn profitable.

He believes that deliberately choosing the highest strike price in the entire options chain is more about reducing hedging costs than directly betting on SpaceX reaching $330 before expiration.

The mysterious position has drawn attention also due to SpaceX's extreme volatility since its IPO.

SpaceX went public on June 11 at $135 per share, raising about $75 billion and achieving a valuation close to $1.8 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history.

After listing, the stock surged over 67%, peaking around $225.64, before rapidly retreating. The current stock price is about 15% to 20% below the IPO price and has fallen approximately 40% to 50% from its June highs.

SpaceX's options implied volatility is currently at 133, higher than almost all S&P 500 components except for SanDisk (SNDK-US). The options market anticipates that SpaceX's stock price could fluctuate by as much as 14% on the day of the earnings announcement.

Market expectations are for SpaceX's Q2 revenue to be around $6.88 billion, with a loss of $0.23 per share and adjusted EBITDA of about $2.1 billion. Full-year 2026 revenue is estimated at around $39 billion, with adjusted EBITDA around $17.3 billion. Reports indicate SpaceX's current valuation is roughly 36 times its estimated 2026 revenue.

In addition to earnings, SpaceX will also face pressure from early shareholder stock unlocks.

Reports indicate that about 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors will have partial sale restrictions lifted on August 6.

This batch of shares does not include those subject to the main 180-day lock-up period, which expires on December 8. About 6.4 billion shares held by CEO Musk are restricted until June 12, 2027.

With earnings, extremely high volatility, and share unlocks converging, the mysterious $330 call option is more likely a relatively low-cost 'extreme market scenario insurance policy.' The true buyer's identity remains unknown, but as SpaceX releases its earnings and the contracts expire on Friday, the purpose behind this massive position may gradually become clear.