Property: Credit Controls Significantly Dampen Buyer Sentiment, New Taipei Pre-Sale Inventory Surpasses 18,000 Units with Tamsui Leading

After Taiwan's central bank implemented its seventh round of selective credit controls in September 2024, the sales pace of pre-sale housing projects noticeably slowed, pushing up the volume of unsold inventory in the pre-sale market. A real estate brokerage analyzed data from July 2021—when the pre-sale registration system was introduced—on 'unsold inventory' and 'cumulative sales rates' across New Taipei City's administrative districts. The data shows that the citywide unsold inventory has surpassed 18,000 units.

Among the 18,000+ unsold units in New Taipei City, Tamsui, Sanchong, and Linkou—districts known for large-scale development zones—face the most significant sales pressure. Meanwhile, both Tucheng and Wugu have achieved cumulative sales rates exceeding 80%.

Tamsui District leads with 3,507 unsold units, yet its cumulative sales rate stands at 66.3%, below the citywide average of 73.1%. Chen Jinping, Deputy Manager of the Evergreen Real Estate Research & Development Center, noted that Tamsui has drawn market attention in recent years due to transportation developments like the Danhai Light Rail and the Tanjiang Bridge, prompting developers to rush in. However, after credit tightening, speculative buyers have exited, and owner-occupiers have turned cautious. Amid this demand gap, Tamsui’s unsold inventory remains high.

Chen pointed out that sales pressure in Tamsui is concentrated in peripheral areas of the Danhai New Town, particularly in later-developed zones. Compared to well-serviced areas around the 'Tamsui Administrative Center Station,' these zones lack full amenities and, coinciding with tighter policies, have seen weak demand as buyers shift toward owner-occupation and long-term investment. This has weakened project performance and overall district absorption.

Sanchong and Linkou rank second and third with 2,189 and 1,903 unsold units, respectively. Despite high supply, both districts have strong刚需 (primary housing demand), with sales rates of 77.2% and 75.9%, placing them among the top performers in New Taipei. Chen explained that Sanchong, just one bridge away from Taipei City, has seen active development in large-scale land releases in zones like Erchong Flood Diversion and Renyi. Its relatively affordable prices attract first-time homebuyers from Taipei, while proximity to mature commercial areas and access to the Zhonghe-Xinlu Line and Airport MRT ensure comprehensive living amenities, supporting owner-occupier demand and solid sales.

Linkou, with its lower price base, appeals to young and budget-conscious buyers. Ongoing development of the New Taipei International AI+ Smart Park and the entry of global semiconductor giant ASML have sustained market momentum, driving employment inflows and maintaining stable transaction activity, thereby easing some sales pressure.

Notably, Tucheng and Wugu are the only two districts with cumulative sales rates exceeding 80%. Chen explained that Tucheng has benefited from the influx of the Dingpu Technology Park, boosting local employment, and its direct access to central Taipei via the Banan Line strengthens commuter demand, lifting overall absorption efficiency to 80.2%. Wugu leads with an 80.4% sales rate, primarily because it launched fewer new projects after credit controls took effect. Despite cooling demand, the low proportion of newly impacted projects minimized the effect on long-term absorption performance.