Nvidia Ends Five-Day Rally; Earnings Report Seen as Next Catalyst

According to Barron's, Nvidia (NVDA-US) briefly extended its rally on Thursday (Aug. 6) but ultimately failed to maintain intraday gains. The market believes its financial results, scheduled for release later this month, could serve as a critical catalyst to propel the stock higher.

Nvidia closed down 0.1% at $218.99, ending a five-day consecutive rise. The stock had earlier climbed to $223.63 before giving up all gains.

On Thursday, Nvidia was the most actively traded stock in the S&P 500 and the second-most traded in the Nasdaq 100.

Year-to-date, Nvidia’s share price has risen 17.3%, with a 12-month cumulative gain of 21%.

Investors continue to favor Nvidia due to its dominant position in the AI chip market. A recent indicator is Elon Musk’s revelation that SpaceX (SPACEX-US) will fully adopt Nvidia’s hardware products going forward.

Moreover, Nvidia holds an overwhelming advantage in the so-called Sovereign AI sector. Data released Wednesday by Counterpoint Research shows that 92% of sovereign AI models are trained using Nvidia chips.

Nvidia’s fiscal 2026 revenue from sovereign AI has more than tripled year-on-year, surpassing $30 billion. The company aims to expand this business further.

Marc Einstein, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, stated, 'As sovereign AI infrastructure continues to expand globally, Nvidia is signing multiple multi-billion-dollar partnerships worldwide, positioning itself to lead the next wave of AI—AI inference and sovereign AI factory construction.'

The next major market catalyst is expected to be Nvidia’s earnings report on August 26. Historically, the stock tends to strengthen ahead of earnings announcements but often retreats afterward. Market participants will watch whether this pattern breaks this time.

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson noted in a research report, 'Since Nvidia’s stock remains below post-earnings levels from last quarter, we’re revisiting the familiar mid-quarter trading pattern—particularly the 2- to 3-week period before earnings, which has consistently seen upward momentum over the past eight quarters.'

He added, 'We observe that we are now entering this pre-earnings window, during which stock performance has been notably strong across the last eight quarters.'