SpaceX Stock Soars After Lock-Up Expiry! Up 23% in Two Days, Nearing $135 IPO Price Amid Short Squeeze

SpaceX stock rose sharply on Friday (7th), marking the second consecutive day of gains and drawing close to its $135 initial public offering (IPO) price—the first time nearing that level since falling below it last month. The much-watched lock-up expiration passed without triggering significant sell-offs.

On Thursday, the first tranche of insider-held SpaceX shares became eligible for sale, unlocking up to 911.5 million shares. This allowed some shareholders their first opportunity to sell stakes and realize profits.

Despite widespread anticipation of a potential sell-off, SpaceX’s stock moved in the opposite direction. On Friday, shares jumped 15.8% to close at $133.11 per share—the largest single-day gain since June 15, its first full trading day post-IPO. The stock is now less than $2 away from the $135 IPO price.

This two-day rally lifted SpaceX’s share price by 23%, adding over $327 billion to its market capitalization during the period.

The surge has reversed SpaceX’s prior downward trend. Led by Elon Musk, the company operates across rocketry, space exploration, and artificial intelligence (AI). Since hitting its post-IPO all-time high, its market value had briefly erased more than $1 trillion.

Earlier this Wednesday, SpaceX released its first public financial report, which pressured the stock due to higher-than-expected spending on its AI business, closing down 14% that day.

According to data from S3 Partners LLC, over 250 million shares of SpaceX were shorted, representing approximately 16% of freely tradable shares. Prior to Wednesday’s unlock of 911.5 million shares, the short interest ratio had exceeded 36%.

Before this two-day rally, short sellers betting on a price decline had seen paper profits exceeding $9 billion. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said: 'I’m sure some of those bearish positions had to be covered today.'

J.P. Morgan analysts noted earlier Thursday that investors may have already engaged in 'massive front-running' ahead of the lock-up expiry. Brett Donnelly, founder of Spectra Markets, also stated that the end of the lock-up period and its impact 'were certainly priced into the stock.'

Evan Mills, a financial advisor at Scholar Advising who primarily assists current and former SpaceX employees, indicated that many investors may prefer to hold onto their shares. He revealed that some insiders view selling shares as equivalent to 'abandoning SpaceX’s mission and vision.'

Billions more shares of SpaceX stock are set to unlock over the coming year.

It’s important to note that the end of the lock-up period merely grants early investors the option to sell—it doesn’t mean they will. In fact, the shares unlocked on Thursday represent only a small fraction of insider holdings, with the next wave expected by the end of this month.

Separately, SpaceX announced on Thursday that it plans to invest $168 billion in the initial phase of its Terafab chip manufacturing project in Grimes County, Texas, partnering with Tesla (TSLA-US).

Wall Street remains broadly optimistic about SpaceX. Argus Research upgraded its rating on SpaceX stock from 'Hold' to 'Buy' on Friday, encouraged by the company’s AI infrastructure investments and expectations of 'rapid cost recovery.'

Overall, nearly 80% of analysts tracking SpaceX maintain a 'Buy' rating. According to Bloomberg data, the average analyst target price stands at approximately $221—offering over 65% upside potential compared to Friday’s closing price.