Is Taiwan's Stock Market Confirming a V-Shaped Recovery? Who Leads in Memory and AI?

U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, while June's figure was revised down from an initial gain of 57,000 to just 20,000, signaling a clear cooling in the U.S. labor market. As a result, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have rapidly diminished, leading to renewed capital inflows into technology and growth stocks, driving all four major U.S. indices higher.

Technically, the S&P 500 has broken above the 7,700 level and reached a new all-time high. The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have also turned bullish in tandem. As long as these indices do not fall below their previous breakout zones, the bullish structure of the U.S. market remains intact.

However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a concern. Although Iran announced it is nearing a framework agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz, it still demands that the U.S. end hostile actions and lift sanctions, meaning full maritime passage has not yet been restored. Oil prices and inflation risks cannot be fully dismissed.

This Wednesday, August 12, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released. If the data comes in below market expectations, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 could reach new record highs, further solidifying the global bullish market trend.

Encouraged by the strong U.S. rally, Taiwan's stock index futures surged 736 points in Friday's night session, officially breaking through the 45,000-point psychological level. Technically, after the previous wave of margin calls and deleveraging was completed, the weighted index has rebounded over 5,000 points from its lows, significantly increasing the probability of a short-term V-shaped recovery.

More importantly, Taiwan's July exports reached USD 75.3 billion, up 32.9% year-on-year. Key heavyweight stock Hon Hai (2317-TW) reported July revenue of NT$946.5 billion, up 54.2% year-on-year—its highest ever for the month—indicating that demand for AI servers, cloud networks, and semiconductors remains robust. This confirms that Taiwan's stock market fundamentals have not deteriorated. If U.S. stocks challenge new highs after the CPI release this week, Taiwan's market may also turn bullish and retest its previous highs.

The bullish trend is now recovering. Market volatility offers opportunities for sector rotation and upgrading portfolios by replacing weak stocks with stronger ones. Maintaining a long position remains the most favorable strategy at present.

On the stock level, the main themes remain 'memory + AI servers.' Goldman Sachs' latest report argues that the market has become overly pessimistic about the memory industry. The rapid expansion of AI computing is creating structural supply-demand imbalances, potentially extending DRAM supply tightness into 2030. Crucially, market rumors suggest that NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin Ultra is considering reducing HBM capacity per GPU due to severe HBM supply constraints—further proving that the issue is not weak demand, but insufficient supply.

In Taiwan, monitor memory-related stocks such as Nanya Technology (2408-TW), Winbond Electronics (2344-TW), Phison Electronics (8299-TW), and ADATA Technology (3260-TW). On the AI side, watch Hon Hai (2317-TW), Wiwynn (6669-TW), Wistron (3231-TW), AcBel (3017-TW), Delta Electronics (Thailand) (3324-TW), and Tripod Technology (2383-TW). However, given the high volatility in memory stocks recently, the strategy should not be chasing highs, but waiting for pullbacks, low volume, and resilience during negative news before entering.

This week's market outlook remains bullish, but greater emphasis should be placed on upgrading portfolios—keeping only the strongest stocks. Capital should be concentrated in those with the strongest fundamentals, cleanest shareholding structures, and the highest potential to break out to new highs.