Memory Price Surge Widens Impact: Global TV Peak Season Turns Weak, Shipments Expected to Decline Consecutively in Q3 and Q4

With memory chip prices continuing to rise and early inventory preparations for the World Cup, global TV shipments this year are showing a clear 'front-loaded' pattern. CINNO Research estimates that global TV shipments in Q3 will decline by 3.5% year-on-year, with the drop widening to 6.8% in Q4. As overall system cost pressures increase in the second half, brands and secondary manufacturers will face greater challenges in profitability and demand.

CINNO Research points out that the global TV industry is undergoing a structural shift in 2026. The explosive demand for AI computing power has driven up memory chip prices, gradually altering the cost structure of TV sets. In some low-end products, the cost of memory chips has even surpassed that of panels, becoming the highest-cost component in the Bill of Materials (BOM). As a result, TV manufacturers are facing significant cost increases and hardware losses.

Amid expectations of continued cost increases and boosted by early World Cup inventory demand, brands pulled forward their orders, resulting in relatively strong shipment performance in the first half.

Q1 global TV shipments exceeded expectations, growing 2.8% year-on-year. Q2 maintained growth momentum, but divergence among brands had already begun—leading brands sustained strong demand, while shipments from secondary manufacturers gradually weakened.

In the second half, pressure from rising system costs becomes significantly more pronounced, posing tougher profit challenges for TV manufacturers. Leading brands are actively shifting toward mid-to-high-end products, aiming to offset cost pressures through technological premiums, supported by supply chain advantages, keeping demand relatively robust. Secondary manufacturers, however, face evident demand cooling.

CINNO Research forecasts global TV shipments will decline 3.5% year-on-year in Q3, with the decline further expanding to 6.8% in Q4.

Market Diversification: China's 'Volume Down, Quality Up'

Under dual pressures of rising costs and intensified competition in mature markets, major regional TV markets worldwide are experiencing varying degrees of contraction this year. However, due to differences in consumer base, industrial supply chains, event effects, and ecosystem maturity, development paths are diverging noticeably.

China’s TV market has fully entered a 'volume down, quality up' phase. With consumers extending replacement cycles to 8–10 years, slow release of replacement demand, and weak consumer sentiment, CINNO Research forecasts China’s 2026 TV set shipments will decline 7% year-on-year, falling below 30 million units annually.

However, supported by a mature display supply chain, product competition in the Chinese market is gradually moving away from low-price battles toward Mini LED and high refresh rate technologies, whose penetration rates are rapidly increasing. The scale of ultra-large-sized products above 80 inches has already taken global leadership, and the market’s competitive focus is gradually shifting from shipment volume to product value.

North America: Relatively Stable, OS Ecosystem as Competitive Core

Compared to other markets, North America remains a key stabilizing force in global TV demand. Its relatively stable economic fundamentals, combined with incremental demand from the 2026 World Cup, help maintain overall market stability. CINNO Research forecasts North American TV shipments at approximately 49.7 million units this year, down only 0.2% year-on-year—outperforming other major regions.

Another characteristic of the North American market is its mature TV operating system (OS) commercial ecosystem with strong profitability. OS providers actively compete for TV hardware access and offer subsidies, while brands with their own OS prioritize securing related revenues.

With memory costs remaining high and brands pushing premiumization strategies, penetration of Mini LED and high refresh rate products is expected to accelerate. However, growth in ultra-large-sized and OLED products is projected to fall below expectations.

On the other hand, TV hardware in North America still faces loss pressure. Whether OS subsidies can continue and how brands improve hardware profitability will be key medium- to long-term challenges.

Emerging Markets: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Growth Potential

Emerging markets are more directly impacted by rising memory costs due to geopolitical volatility, weaker economic foundations, higher consumer price sensitivity, and concentrated demand for small-to-mid-sized TVs (32–55 inches).

CINNO Research believes TV demand in emerging markets has been under continuous pressure over the past two years and may face a notable year-on-year decline in the short term.

However, in the medium to long term, emerging markets have vast populations, room for increased household TV ownership, and ongoing urbanization. If economic conditions and purchasing power improve, TV shipments hold steady growth potential.

In terms of product structure, high-end display technology penetration remains low in emerging markets. Given limited purchasing power, rapid growth in mid-to-high-end product demand cannot be expected in the short term.

CINNO Research suggests manufacturers should focus on cost optimization and differentiated, high-value products in the short term, gradually promoting low-cost Mini LED and high refresh rate technologies into lower-tier segments.

TV Industry Shift Toward 'Hardware + Ecosystem'

Looking ahead two years, CINNO Research believes the transformation of the global TV industry will be primarily driven by two main forces: cost restructuring and OS ecosystem competition.

Memory price hikes have already reshaped BOM cost structures, forcing brands to balance between 'profit' and 'market share.' Beyond memory, other components also face cost pressures in the second half, potentially increasing brand profitability challenges further.

Facing changing cost and market structures, TV manufacturers need to strengthen supply chain resilience and flexibly adjust product portfolios to enhance cost competitiveness.

Meanwhile, as AI large model applications and OS capabilities continue to improve, OS is evolving from a basic functional carrier into a commercial traffic gateway. The global TV industry’s business model will gradually shift from being 'hardware-centric' to 'hardware + ecosystem.'