Rebound End, Collapse Start? High-Altitude Oxygen Deficiency Price Divergence! 46,000 May Break Seasonal Line? 'Electric Light Heat' Next Wave?

Did you notice? After the Taiwan stock market plummeted below 40,000 points at the end of July, during this wave of significant rebound, a very subtle phenomenon occurred: stock prices rose, but trading volume did not expand, showing a divergence. This is like you trying to climb to the summit of Yushan at an altitude of 3,900 meters, but the air becomes thin, and every step you take is extremely difficult to breathe. This is the real picture of this wave of Taiwan stock market surge.

This "price up, volume down" divergence signal is like a car trying to climb a very steep slope, the accelerator is pressed to the floor, but the tank is out of gas. This will induce the market to experience a short-term trend reversal. As expected, yesterday foreign investors ended a six-day buying spree and turned to selling; the New Taiwan dollar turned from appreciation to depreciation; and under the influence of the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking through 5.33% to hit a 19-year high, the Taiwan stock market is facing a seasonal line defense battle. It is not ruled out that foreign investors will take advantage of the futures settlement period to pour in and kill, and the main force will carry out a strong washout.

"Washout is a freebie"? Understanding the basic face of steel bottom gas

Many people, as soon as they see foreign investors turn to kill, the market fluctuates, they are scared to stop losses. But please everyone calmly think about two core logic:

GDP growth rate as high as 11% economic miracle: Taiwan's basic face is very strong. The latest official data shows that the GDP growth rate has reached 11%. In an era where inflation continues to erode pocket cash, the stocks of quality companies are still the strongest haven for funds.

Geographical monopoly advantage under Sino-US confrontation: No matter how the international situation evolves, the dependence of US technology giants on Taiwan's high-end manufacturing and chip packaging is only increasing, not decreasing.

Therefore, the short-term "price up, volume down" is just a correction of overheating in the capital and technical aspects. The main force likes to use this kind of fluctuation to wash out the scattered players who lack confidence, thereby creating a large bullish moving average arrangement. Therefore, for long-term investors, when the stock price pulls back, it is actually the golden opportunity to "send coal in snowy weather" to enter the market in batches.

As for this washout, where will the funds gather? The answer is very clear: it is the core leading stocks of the "electric, light, and heat" three major sectors:

One, "Light" group: Optical communication and silicon photonics core

Lian Jia (3081-TW): The upstream leader of silicon photonics InP (indium phosphide) epitaxy, controlling the most critical CW laser light source for CPO. The gross margin for a single quarter surged to 57%, and EPS hit a historical high. It has a monopoly in high-end 1.6T and 3.2T silicon photonics products, with a multi-wavelength laser moat, and is the benchmark stock with the strongest long-term valuation recovery and profit jump momentum in the CPO boom.

Lian Jun (3450-TW): A large optical communication packaging and testing company that has successfully transformed from a traditional component supplier to an AI advanced packaging and testing core. Benefiting from the continuous full-load operation of laser components and COSA production lines, it is actively expanding production to address the supply gap. With the mass production of 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules and the in-depth cultivation of the NVIDIA and TSMC CPO ecosystem, it has strong long-term profit potential.

Hua Xing Guang (4979-TW): Specializes in optical submodules and high-end TO-Can packaging, a core supplier of high-speed optical transceivers for data centers. With the upgrade of AI servers driving a significant increase in 800G demand and the entry of 1.6T products into the production stage, the company's operations are fully shifting to the high-margin Datacom sector, with a very clear long-term growth momentum.

Two, "Electric" group: High-speed transmission, substrate, and material upgrading

Nan Dian (8046-TW): ABF substrate giant. With the expansion of AI chip packaging area and the increase in the number of layers, foreign institutions estimate that the supply gap of ABF substrates will expand sharply, entering a long-term structural shortage. Nan Dian's high-end substrate shipment ratio has increased significantly, and it will enjoy excellent product combination optimization and gross margin improvement.

Tai Yao (6274-TW): High-end CCL (copper foil substrate) leader. When AI transmission speed doubles, traditional PCB materials cannot withstand high-frequency and high-speed signal loss. Tai Yao's high-end multi-layer board CCL capacity has been locked in by global technology giants, with product average selling price (ASP) and gross margin rising simultaneously.

Da Liang (3167-TW): High-end PCB forming machine and drilling machine equipment manufacturer. With the arrival of the high-end PCB and ABF substrate upgrading wave, the demand for high-precision processing equipment is exploding. Da Liang's order visibility is directly connected to the next few quarters, continuously spouting out strong momentum, becoming the equipment champion in the "electric" group.

Nan Ya Science (2408-TW): Memory indicator giant. With the production capacity of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) squeezing traditional DRAM supply, and AI terminal devices driving memory capacity upgrading, low-stage Nan Ya Science enjoys a strong double evaluation recovery opportunity for P/E ratio and P/B ratio.

Three, "Heat" group: Heat management revolution under increased computing power

Qi Kuang (3017-TW): AI cooling ultimate leader, providing a full suite of solutions from air cooling to high-end water cooling boards and cooling distribution machines. With the power consumption of NVIDIA's new platform breaking records, the penetration rate of water cooling is showing a non-linear increase. Qi Kuang leads in both technology and capacity, and its profits will achieve a leapfrog growth.

Jian Ce (3653-TW): Global heat spreader leader. The huge thermal stress generated by AI chips is highly dependent on Jian Ce's ultra-precision heat spreaders for primary heat dissipation. The company has a near-monopoly position in high-end chip packaging, making it the most stable profit winner in the AI computing power heat management revolution.

Gao Li (8996-TW): Heat exchanger and liquid cooling cooling technology pioneer. Facing the rapid increase in power consumption and thermal energy of AI data centers, Gao Li relies on its core thermal management technology, while riding the dual tailwind of high-end liquid cooling systems and power system upgrades, with huge long-term profit jump space.

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Article source: Moore Investment Consulting - Jiang Guozhong Analyst

The individual securities recommended by our company for analysis have no improper financial interest. Past performance does not guarantee future profits. Investors should make independent judgments, carefully evaluate, and bear investment risks.