Goldman Sachs Significantly Raises 2027/28 Optical Module Demand Forecast; Supply Chain Tightness May Become Key Shipment Bottleneck

Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that global demand for high-speed optical modules (optical transceivers) is showing strong momentum, driven by AI server expansion and iterative product specification upgrades.

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its demand forecasts for 800G and higher optical modules for 2027 and 2028 to 144 million and 171 million units respectively—a 39% and 36% increase from previous estimates.

However, on the supply side, ongoing shortages of key components such as DSP chips, laser components, and printed circuit boards (PCBs), combined with leading industry players actively securing production capacity, mean that supply chain bottlenecks have become the core variable determining future shipment volumes and profit distribution.

Goldman Sachs analyzes that this significant upward revision in demand is primarily driven by three engines: AI server rack expansion, application scenarios extending from horizontal scaling (scale out) to vertical scaling (scale up) and cross-layer interconnection (scale across), and accelerated product specification upgrades.

Company executives interviewed emphasized that currently shipped optical modules have already been physically deployed in data centers, reflecting genuine end-user demand rather than channel inventory buildup—significantly reducing the risk of repeating the 'double ordering' seen during the early internet bubble.

Despite strong demand, supply-side constraints may suppress actual shipment volumes. Goldman Sachs expects that under the backdrop of insufficient supply of key components, 1.6T optical module prices will remain above $700, while price declines for 800G products in 2027 will be limited to single-digit percentage levels.

Interviewees noted that product cycles in the data communications market have shortened to just one to two years, making R&D and mass production execution capabilities—not mere price competition—the new core barrier to entry. Global leaders (e.g., Innolight) are directly locking in capacity through advance payments, long-term supply agreements, and joint development efforts, further solidifying their competitive advantages and market pricing discipline.

Regarding the progress of co-packaged optics (CPO) technology, Goldman Sachs points out that although large-scale deployment of CPO switches will take time, test and coupling equipment vendors are already realizing revenues. For example, Roboteko's Q2 revenue surged 172% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding market expectations, validating structural demand for early defect screening to reduce failure costs.

Goldman Sachs estimates that CPO switch shipments will grow dramatically from 10,000 units in 2026 to 131,000 units in 2028, with equipment orders already visible through 2028.

The report concludes by identifying three indicators to validate this outlook: whether manufacturer annual guidance in Q1 2027 reaches the lower end of the 144 million unit range, whether 1.6T average prices remain above $700, and whether equipment vendor revenue growth remains positive for two consecutive quarters.