Have Short-Term Negative Factors Peaked? Carrier Boards, Passives, and Power

I. Market Structure: Volume Contraction and Pullback, Short-Term Weakness Without Forming a Mid-Term Bearish Trend

Today, the Taiwan stock market showed "volume contraction with volatile pullback and consolidation." It closed down 351 points at 45,511, with trading volume shrinking to approximately NT$605.8 billion, indicating a clear volume-contraction correction.

Today's decline was mainly suppressed by multiple factors including AI safety concerns, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. AI-related stocks became the primary target for profit-taking. Recently, senior executives from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI publicly called for slowing down frontier AI development, prompting the market to reassess AI capital expenditures, regulatory risks, and safety concerns.

However, this should be interpreted more as a repricing of AI industry development models and risks, rather than a disappearance of AI demand. Global CSPs continue to compete in computing power, data centers, and AI infrastructure, and the long-term fundamentals of AI remain fundamentally intact.

From a technical perspective, today's trading volume hit the lowest level in over five months, indicating that selling pressure is not out of control. If the index stabilizes with low volume near the previous low of 44,200 points, a short-term rebound opportunity may emerge.

II. Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Taiwan's Exports Hit Record High, AI Remains Key Support

Taiwan's August exports reached USD 82.4 billion, up 41% year-on-year and 9.4% month-on-month, setting a new monthly record. Cumulative exports from January to August totaled USD 574.34 billion, up 44.2% year-on-year, indicating strong ongoing demand for AI and technology.

The Ministry of Finance noted that deepening AI applications, rising computing power demand, and accelerated AI infrastructure deployment by CSPs continue to benefit Taiwan's semiconductor, server, and electronic component exports. Therefore, Taiwan's fundamentals remain the strongest bullish support for the stock market.

U.S. August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Inflation remains sticky, making Fed policy expectations the biggest near-term variable.

III. Fed and Liquidity: Tonight to Early Tomorrow Will Be Critical for Short-Term Market

The Fed is currently holding its FOMC meeting from September 15–16. Market focus is not only on the interest rate decision but also on the post-meeting statement, economic outlook, and future policy path.

If policy signals are less hawkish than market fears, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields decline, it will benefit the valuation recovery of tech stocks. Conversely, if more hawkish signals are released, high-P/E AI stocks may still face pressure.

Therefore, do not assume the Fed will definitely hike or cut rates. What truly impacts the Taiwan stock market is the "gap between actual decisions and prior market pricing."

IV. Investment Focus: Volatility Provides an Opportunity to Replace Weak Stocks with Strong Ones

AI and TSMC supply chain stocks remain core: Focus on advanced process nodes, advanced packaging, HBM, ASICs, AI servers, PCB/CCL, high-speed optical communications, CPO, and liquid cooling.

If AI demand continues, it will simultaneously drive demand for testing, measurement, equipment, materials, and high-end components. Therefore, stock selection should not be based solely on AI themes but should also consider order visibility and profit realization capability.

Financial stocks can serve as defensive positions during volatile markets. Pay attention to bank net interest margins, life insurance investment returns, and future dividend policies.

Petrochemicals, container shipping, and bulk shipping are more cyclical and short-term rotation plays. Entry should be based on improvements in pricing, freight rates, and inventory cycles.

V. Trading Strategy: Avoid Panic Selling, Wait for Stabilization, and Prioritize Stock Selection Over Market Timing

Short-term strategy remains "phased positioning with profit-taking on rebounds." If volume contraction, stabilization, and reduced foreign selling pressure occur near 44,200 points, consider low-entry opportunities.

If the index breaks below the previous low and fails to recover quickly, with further expansion of foreign selling pressure, reduce holdings and leverage.

Prioritize stock selection based on revenue growth, gross margin, EPS, order visibility, and valuation. Avoid chasing stocks solely because of a single month's record-high revenue.

Conclusion: The current situation is one of "rising short-term risks but strong mid-term fundamentals." What the market truly awaits is the Fed's decision, cooling oil prices, and AI sentiment recovery. Once negative factors become less impactful, foreign investors resume buying, and volume rebounds, the Taiwan stock market may see a technical rebound. Therefore, the current focus should not be panic selling, but holding key support levels, waiting for price and volume strength, and positioning early in AI core stocks with real profit growth potential.

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Source: Chen Xuejin, Analyst, Lunyuan Investment Consulting

The individual securities recommended by our company

have no improper financial interests. Past performance does not guarantee future profits.

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