Mid-Autumn Holiday Cheat Sheet: Taiwan Stock Market Volume Shrinks, U.S. Treasury Yields Surge! PCE, Non-Farm Payrolls, and Micron Earnings Incoming – What’s Next After the Break?

I. Taiwan Stock Market at High Levels with Reduced Volume – Will Funds Return After the Holiday?

Ahead of the Mid-Autumn holiday, the Taiwan stock market turned cautious near historical highs. On September 24, the weighted index closed at 48,024.60 points, with trading value falling to NT$736.624 billion—significantly lower than the over NT$1 trillion seen just two trading days prior. Foreign investors ended their five-day buying streak, and the three major institutional investors collectively sold short approximately NT$43.873 billion. Reduced volume before a long holiday is not uncommon, but as buying interest recedes and institutional investors simultaneously adjust positions, whether bullish momentum can continue after the holiday depends on the next incoming signal.

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II. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields, PCE Data and Micron Earnings Take Center Stage

While the Taiwan stock market is on holiday, U.S. markets continue trading. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5.13% intraday, prompting renewed scrutiny of tech stock valuations. Upcoming releases include the PCE price index, employment indicators, and Micron (MU)’s earnings report. Micron’s forward guidance could also influence market sentiment toward Taiwan’s memory sector. These two threads—interest rates and corporate earnings—are set to converge right after the holiday.

III. Multiple Post-Holiday Variables – Where Will the Next Focus Lie?

After the Taiwan stock market resumes trading on September 29, whether the index, trading volume, and institutional investor activity improve in tandem will be the first indicator of fund repatriation. Subsequently, the U.S. non-farm payroll data and Marvell (MRVL)’s Investor Day could shift attention toward AI, CPO (co-packaged optics), and silicon photonics supply chains. Will these events fuel further gains in the Taiwan market, or challenge its high-level rally?

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