Typhoon Bavi's Chance of Hitting Taiwan Surpasses 90%! Mayor Chiang Announces Typhoon Day Decision 'Will Be Announced at This Time' on Friday: Full-Day Closure in Principle

Typhoon Bavi is intensifying as it approaches Taiwan. According to the latest data from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau on August 8, the storm is moving northwestward and is expected to come closest to Taiwan from the evening of August 10 through the daytime of August 11. It may maintain strength between the lower end of a strong typhoon and the upper end of a medium typhoon upon approach. Notably, the 120-hour typhoon wind probability forecast shows over 90% chance of impact across most counties and cities north of Taichung.

Regarding the public's top concerns—whether a typhoon day will be declared, when it will be announced, and whether it will be a half-day closure—Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an stated during a pre-meeting briefing that the announcement will follow past practice: made by 8 PM on the day prior (September 9), with full-day closures as the general principle, though the final decision will depend on the typhoon's trajectory and intensity.

On the typhoon's potential landfall and peak impact periods, the Central Weather Bureau explained that recent forecast paths have converged slightly, indicating Bavi may pass near the northeastern to northern waters of Taiwan. Even if the eye does not make direct landfall, the expanding wind field could still bring northern and parts of central Taiwan into the storm's dangerous quadrant, urging the public not to let their guard down.

Overall, model forecasts show a very high probability of Taiwan being affected by the typhoon's wind field, though whether the center makes direct landfall depends on slight northward or southward shifts in the next 24 to 48 hours. The 120-hour typhoon impact probabilities are as follows:

- Taipei City, Keelung City, Yilan County: ~98% - New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County/City, Miaoli County, Taichung City: mostly over 90%

Timing for marine and land warnings, per the latest assessment:

- September 9 (Thursday) daytime: Marine typhoon warning likely - September 9 evening to midnight: Land typhoon warning likely - September 10 evening to September 11 daytime: Peak period of wind and rain across Taiwan

On the timing of a potential typhoon day announcement, Mayor Chiang stated that Taipei City has already established SOPs for post-disaster recovery and is preparing for the worst-case scenario. Recently, netizens have been reposting Chiang’s past social media post “Tomorrow, closed!” urging for early announcement.

Chiang emphasized that Taipei will follow standard procedures in coordination with the Joint Administration of Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan (JTTK), assessing potential damage based on the typhoon’s actual impact. Given that the most severe effects are expected from the evening of the 10th to the daytime of the 11th, he addressed the possibility of a half-day closure: “Following precedent, we will discuss and evaluate with other counties by 8 PM the day before and announce the decision. Unless exceptional circumstances arise, Taipei generally follows a full-day closure principle. However, the final decision will depend on the typhoon’s development and weather conditions at the time.”