Too Much Talk, Limited Damage: Assessing Iran's 'Mirror for Tang' Tactics After the US-Iran Ceasefire

The US and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 19, which included the reopening of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and Iran's promise not to obstruct the passage of merchant ships, as well as an agreement to hold further negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. However, less than a week after the signing of the agreement, the two sides began to interpret the terms of the agreement differently, which then escalated into a series of cycles of 'Iran strikes, US retaliates, Iran threatens again.' The following is a chronological summary of Iran's public statements and actual military actions after the signing of the agreement.

June 23: US Congress passes resolution to limit Trump's authority to use military force against Iran Following the signing of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the US Congress took action to check the Trump administration's Middle East policy. On June 23, the US Senate passed the War Powers Resolution, requiring President Trump to stop continuing military actions against Iran without congressional authorization. The measure passed 50-48, with four Republican senators defecting to support it, including Susan Collins, Bill Cassidy, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul.

Since the House of Representatives had previously passed the same resolution, the Senate's passage of the measure made it a bipartisan congressional measure to limit the president's military authority. Although the resolution is primarily politically binding, its legal effect remains controversial, it reflects some Republican lawmakers' concerns about the Trump administration's handling of the Iran issue.

June 25: Cargo ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz The Iranian Revolutionary Guards attacked the Ever Lovely, a cargo ship under the flag of Singapore and operated by Evergreen Marine. According to a Reuters report quoting US officials, a suicide drone approached the ship from the west and then rammed into the hull, indicating that this was a deliberate attack. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that the ship reported being hit by a projectile, with damage to the upper structure and windows of the bridge, but all crew members were safe, the cargo was not significantly affected, and the ship could continue to sail.

At the time of the incident, the Ever Lovely was sailing along the coast of Oman following the recommended route of the UK Maritime Trade Operations, with three other merchant ships in the convoy. According to the crew, the Iranian navy did not issue a warning over the radio or request the ship to turn back. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) under the United Nations subsequently suspended the operation of escorting ships through the strait.

June 25: Senate reverses stance, blocks measure to limit Trump's authority On the same day that the Ever Lovely was attacked, the US Senate saw a major turnaround on the resolution to limit Trump's military authority against Iran. Republican Senate leaders pushed for a procedural vote to block the War Powers Resolution from moving forward, ultimately defeating the relevant procedure 50-47, preventing the measure to limit the president's military authority from being further implemented.

In just two days, US Congress saw a clear shift in its policy towards Iran: on June 23, the Senate expressed its opinion to limit the Trump administration's military actions in a bipartisan manner; but by June 25, the Republican camp regrouped and blocked the limiting measure from taking effect. This also gave the Trump administration more administrative maneuvering space in the subsequent military standoff with Iran.

June 26: US military's first airstrike In response to the attack on the Ever Lovely, the US military launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets on the 26th. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that this operation destroyed Iran's missile and drone storage facilities, as well as coastal radar sites, with targets including the Sirik area in Iran, and released footage of the airstrike. The Iranian side stated that the surrounding areas of Sirik Port were hit.

Trump later posted on social media, accusing Tehran of 'stupidly violating' the ceasefire agreement and calling this operation a strong response to Iran's aggressive behavior. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards later accused the United States and Israel and stated that they had launched a counterattack on US military bases in the region; at the same time, they warned that if the United States launched another attack, Iran's response would be even stronger.

June 27: Oil tanker attacked again, US military expands strike range Iran attacked another oil tanker, the Kiku, flying the Panamanian flag. This was the third military conflict between the two sides in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz within 72 hours. The US Central Command immediately confirmed that it had launched a second wave of strikes on targets within Iran in the past 24 hours, and the range of the strikes was expanded compared to the previous day, covering 10 military monitoring facilities, communication systems, anti-aircraft positions, drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities. Trump posted on social media that day, again accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement and warning that if the United States was 'forced' to restart the war, 'Iran would cease to exist.' US Vice President Pence also publicly addressed Tehran that day, stating that if there were different opinions, they could communicate directly by phone, otherwise 'violence would be met with violence.'

June 28: Iranian Revolutionary Guards retaliate against Kuwait and Bahrain After the US military launched another airstrike on the Bandar Abbas area of Iran in the early hours of the 28th, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards immediately launched a counterattack with missiles and drones on the 28th local time, targeting US air force bases in Kuwait and US facilities in Bahrain, but no specific damage was caused. The Kuwaiti military announced that the air defense system had intercepted the incoming missiles and drones, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces stated that the explosions heard by the public came from the air defense system intercepting enemy targets. According to the open-source intelligence account 'OSINTtechnical,' this attack targeted the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and the missiles were intercepted by the Patriot air defense system deployed in the area over Al Jahra. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards stated in a statement that this response was a serious warning to the US side, letting the opponent know that aggression would not be cost-free; if similar actions occurred again, Iran would take more decisive action, and the consequences would be borne by the side that launched the aggression. However, the actual situation showed that the US military did not suffer significant specific damage. At the same time, the Tasnim News Agency reported that a US oil tanker attempted to turn off its radar system and pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but was fired upon by the Iranian navy and forced to stop and return; there were also reports that the US military had fired at a location near Bandar Abbas, but there were no casualties or property damage. The Iranian Foreign Ministry later issued a statement accusing the US side of violating the ceasefire agreement, saying 'betrayal is the nature of the United States.'

During the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei (around July 6): Oil tankers attacked again in the Strait of Hormuz The funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran on July 6, attracting millions of people to participate. At the same time, two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred less than three weeks after the US and Iran signed the preliminary peace agreement, once again impacting the already fragile ceasefire arrangement. Trump said at the time that if an agreement could not be reached with Iran, the US side would 'make an end to it'; Iran responded that unless Trump stopped repeatedly threatening to restart the war, there would be no more peace talks.

July 7: US airstrikes, Iran launches large-scale counterattack The US military launched new airstrikes on Iran on the 7th in response to Iran's recent attacks on three merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Central Command stated that the US military had launched a 'series of strong strikes,' aiming to make Iran pay the price for attacking merchant ships carrying civilian crew members, and described Iran's actions as 'completely unjustified, highly dangerous, and clearly in violation of the ceasefire agreement.' The airstrikes targeted Iran's air defense systems, coastal monitoring facilities, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missile positions, drone launch sites, and port facilities. Iranian media confirmed that explosions were heard in the areas of Sirik, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas. The US side also announced the cancellation of the previous oil export sanctions exemption granted to Iran. Bloomberg reported that this move resulted in about 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil being stranded at sea, unable to be exported smoothly. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards later stated on the morning of the 7th local time that they had shot down a US MQ-9 drone in the sky over Bushehr Province in southern Iran, and claimed that the air defense forces launched the attack when the drone approached the Strait of Hormuz confrontation zone. On the same day, the Revolutionary Guards attacked the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with ballistic missiles and drones. The Iranian side claimed that this operation targeted 85 military facilities, as a retaliation for the 'terrorist airstrikes' launched by the US military against Iran's coastal positions and civilian facilities in Hormozgan Province and the southwestern province of Masjed Soleyman. However, the US military did not confirm the scale and results of the attack claimed by Iran. David Des Roches, a scholar at the Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, pointed out that the US military's large-scale airstrikes were a response to Iran's violation of Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding, which requires Iran to ensure the free passage of civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and to work to clear obstructed channels. He also stated that according to Article 4 of the Memorandum of Understanding, the United States had originally promised to limit its maritime blockade of Iran and allow Iranian oil exports, and the US side had indeed fulfilled its promise; therefore, this