Will There Be a Typhoon Holiday on Friday? Typhoon Bavi Slows Down but Remains Large and Strong, with 100% Impact Probability for This County

The movement of powerful Typhoon Bavi and whether a typhoon holiday will be declared on Friday have become the focus of public attention across Taiwan this week. The most intense impact on Taiwan is expected during the evening of the 10th and throughout the day on the 11th. According to the latest potential track forecast from the Central Weather Administration, Bavi will gradually turn northwest starting from the 9th and is expected to maintain its status as a 'large and strong typhoon' as it approaches Taiwan. The Facebook weather page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' shared the latest typhoon updates late on the 8th, noting that although Bavi's intensity has slightly weakened over the past few hours, the highest probability path still indicates a passage near the northeastern coastal waters. Additionally, many typhoon-tracking netizens have noticed that Bavi's movement speed appears to have slowed, reigniting discussions about the likelihood of a typhoon holiday on Friday.

### What is Typhoon Bavi’s Latest Path? Could It Become a Northwest Typhoon?

Weather Facebook page 'Weather Professional - Wu Sheng-yu' pointed out early this morning that, based on satellite imagery, Typhoon Bavi has just passed its third peak intensity and is expected to slowly weaken in strength. However, it should still maintain typhoon strength at or near the upper limit of a medium typhoon as it approaches Taiwan. Given that the storm's wind field could still span 320 to 350 kilometers, it will strike Taiwan as a large and powerful system. Regarding the track, he noted that computer model forecasts are now converging, with most models initially trending northwest and later slightly shifting toward the northwest-west. Subjective track forecasts from international meteorological agencies also largely agree on a path passing over the northern seas of Taiwan. According to the Central Weather Administration's forecast, the typhoon center will pass north of Pengjia Islet, which he specifically highlighted as very close to a typical northwest typhoon.

### When Will Typhoon Bavi Make Landfall? When Will the Impact Be Most Severe?

Regarding the impact on Taiwan, Wu Sheng-yu further explained that this track poses a significant threat, with the wind field potentially covering most areas of Taiwan, possibly excluding only lowland areas in the south. As for landfall timing, the wind field is expected to begin affecting land from Friday night into late evening, with the typhoon center passing near the northeastern and northern coastal waters of Taiwan on Saturday morning, gradually moving toward the Zhejiang coast of China in the evening and beginning to move away. The wind field may not fully clear Taiwan's main island until Saturday night, meaning the storm could affect Taiwan for approximately 24 hours.

### Has Typhoon Bavi Weakened? Impact Timeline Delayed by Several Hours

'Taiwan Typhoon Forum' posted around 10 PM on the 8th, stating that Bavi was still over 1,200 kilometers from Taiwan at the time. Although it had passed its peak intensity, it remained at a strong typhoon level, with the highest probability of passing near the northeastern coastal waters. The impact timeline might be delayed by 3 to 6 hours due to the typhoon's slightly slower speed. The wind field is expected to gradually envelop all of Taiwan from Friday night into late evening, with the most intense impact occurring on Saturday when the typhoon passes near or along the northeastern coast. The slight deviation in Bavi's path over the next 36 hours will determine whether it merely grazes Taiwan, becomes a northwest typhoon, or makes direct landfall, and will also determine how severe the winds will be in northern Taiwan. At the end of the post, it was noted that Taipei, Changhua, Yilan, northern Hualien, and Matsu will be closest to the typhoon's center.

### How Large Is Typhoon Bavi’s Wind Field? Impact Probability Continues to Rise, Keelung Reaches 100%

Regarding the typhoon's latest path and probability of affecting Taiwan, as of noon on the 8th, the '120-hour wind field impact probability' for counties north of Taichung, including Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan, was almost entirely over 90%. Notably, according to the Central Weather Administration's latest data from 2 AM today, Bavi's maximum sustained wind speed near the center is 53 meters per second, with a wind radius maintaining a 'large and bulky' size of about 380 kilometers. The probability of impact has increased across Taiwan, with Keelung reaching 100%—the highest in the country. Northern areas including Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, and Yilan have reached 99%, while Hsinchu and Hualien are around 97%, meaning the wind field could nearly engulf half of Taiwan's landmass.

### More exclusive reports from Feng Media:

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