Typhoon Bavi Could Become 'Northern Taiwan's Nightmare': Northwest Typhoon? Experts Warn It's the Closest in Over a Decade – All 6 Regions on Alert

Typhoon Bavi is approaching Taiwan, with the Central Weather Bureau expected to issue a sea typhoon warning on the afternoon of September 9 and a land warning on the morning of September 10. The Facebook weather page 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' warns that this could be the closest realization of a northwest typhoon in over a decade. With Bavi boasting a record-breaking 380km storm radius—the largest in modern times—its impact will be significant across all of Taiwan, demanding serious preparedness.

How will Typhoon Bavi track? According to Lin Bo-dong, a forecaster at the Central Weather Bureau, the land warning will likely be issued on the morning of September 10. However, Bavi may slightly weaken and its storm radius shrink as it approaches, so the exact land warning area remains under observation. The typhoon is exceptionally large and will move northwestward at 15–20 km/h, passing close to northern Taiwan’s offshore waters. It will affect Taiwan at the lower end of a strong typhoon or upper end of a medium typhoon in intensity.

The 'Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency' explains that guided by the Pacific high-pressure system, Bavi will move northwest, with its center passing near Yilan and northern offshore waters. The key uncertainty lies in whether Taiwan’s terrain will disrupt its path, potentially causing irregular movement—this will determine whether it makes landfall. Based on the latest data, the highest probability is for the center to pass near the northeast cape, followed by a northwest typhoon scenario, with landfall being less likely.

What is a 'Northwest Typhoon'? According to the Central Weather Bureau, a 'northwest typhoon' refers to a typhoon approaching from the east of Taiwan and moving northwestward, passing between Keelung and Pengjia Islet. This path causes northern, northeastern, and western Taiwan to experience strong northwest winds. Due to topographical effects, rainfall in northern and central regions becomes exceptionally heavy. Additionally, because the wind direction is nearly perpendicular to the coastline, drainage is hindered, often leading to flooding and seawater backflow. This makes northwest typhoons among the most destructive. Historical examples include Typhoon Gloria (1963), Typhoon Nelson (1985), Typhoon Winnie (1997), and Typhoon Aere (2004).

The forum warns that the most intense impact will occur throughout Saturday (September 11). Regardless of whether Bavi makes landfall, it will rapidly move into China by Sunday (September 12), ending its influence.

Regional impacts: Due to Bavi’s massive 380km storm radius, wind fields are extremely broad—nearly all of Taiwan will fall within the storm zone. This will be a typhoon felt across the entire island, with the following regional effects:

Northern Taiwan Regardless of landfall, the typhoon’s core will pass directly over northern Taiwan—an inevitability. Given its strength, this could be the most impactful typhoon in northern Taiwan in recent years. Starting on the 10th, outer circulation will bring intermittent rain and wind. Winds and rain will intensify overnight, with September 11 experiencing continuous heavy rain and strong winds. Northern mountainous areas (along the Xueshan Range) are forecast to receive substantial cumulative rainfall—preparation for torrential rain is essential.

Central and Southern Lowlands, Penghu Islands As Bavi is a large typhoon, the Central Mountain Range cannot fully block it. Airflow will wrap around the island and affect western regions. Strong gusts will begin on the 10th, peaking on the 11th, with wind speeds starting at typhoon-force (Beaufort 10). Due to terrain effects, the Hengchun Peninsula may experience even stronger winds and rain. Intermittent rain will begin late on the 10th. Once Bavi passes northern Taiwan on Saturday (11th), central and southern regions will shift to the windward side, increasing rainfall. Although no southwest airflow is expected, moisture will remain high from the 12th to 13th, leading to continued rain for another day or two.

Central and Southern Mountainous Areas Largely unaffected before the 10th. However, once the typhoon center crosses northern Taiwan on the 11th, these areas will become windward, leading to significantly heavier rain. Forecasted rainfall is substantial—preparation for heavy downpours is necessary.

Yilan and Northern Hualien As the first line of impact, intermittent rain and wind will begin on the 10th, intensifying through the night and peaking on the 11th. Yilan should be especially vigilant—should landfall occur, it is most likely here. In such a scenario, direct eyewall impact would bring catastrophic winds and rain. However, landfall may only be confirmed when the center is very close, so continuous vigilance is critical.

Southern Hualien and Taitung Shielded by mountains, these areas will experience relatively less wind and rain. However, foehn winds may occur on the morning of the 11th—monitor for extreme heat, especially in the Huadong Valley. In the afternoon, as winds shift southerly, coastal Taitung will see increased wind and rain—caution is advised.

Kinmen and Matsu Kinmen is farther from the storm and will see minimal impact—only monitor outer circulation rainfall. Matsu, however, may be directly hit by the typhoon’s core. Strong winds and heavy rain are expected from the 11th to 12th—extreme caution is required.