Weather Forecast: A New Typhoon Approaching? Latest Predicted Path Shows 'Three Consecutive Days of Heavy Rain Across Taiwan,' Clearing Up Only on This Day

Taiwan continues to experience intense heat, with severe afternoon thunderstorms expected daily! The Central Weather Administration released the latest high-temperature information today (19th), issuing heat warnings for seven counties and cities, including Greater Taipei and Taoyuan, urging strict precautions against extreme temperatures exceeding 36°C. Meteorological expert Wu Derong warns that due to the continuous influx of southwest winds and southern moisture, atmospheric structure remains highly unstable, making strong convective development likely in mountainous areas and some lowlands across Taiwan before Tuesday (21st). The public is advised to apply sunscreen and carry rain gear to protect against sudden thunderstorms.

Weekly Weather Forecast: Weak Pacific High Pressure! Explosive Convective Activity in Lowlands and Mountainous Areas, Prepare for Afternoon Thunderstorms Until July 21

The Central Weather Administration reports that today will be extremely hot across all regions, with heat advisories issued for the following counties and cities:

· Orange Alert (Prevent consecutive days of 36°C+ heat): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Changhua County, Hualien County.

· Yellow Alert (Prevent 36°C+ heat): Keelung City, Taitung County.

Prepare for consecutive afternoon thunderstorms until July 21, with rain hotspots expanding

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University, stated in his "Leak the Heavenly Mechanism" column today that according to the latest European model simulations, tropical cloud clusters continue to develop and dissipate in the South China Sea before Tuesday (21st). Although current development conditions are not ideal, they continuously bring southwest winds and moisture to areas near Taiwan, significantly increasing low-level atmospheric instability and causing consecutive afternoon thunderstorms.

Wu Derong noted that due to the currently weak Pacific high pressure, from today until Tuesday (21st), southern Taiwan will occasionally experience localized brief rainfall under the influence of southwest winds and southern moisture.

Wu warns that the afternoon hours require particular attention, as strong convection frequently develops intensely in mountainous areas and can extend further into some lowlands along airflow. Residents across Taiwan should pay special attention to lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall during afternoon hours.

From July 22, high pressure slightly strengthens; tropical disturbance variability increases over the weekend

Future weather trends will change in two stages:

· Sunday to Tuesday (19th–21st) Weather: Unstable atmosphere, prepare for consecutive days of strong winds and rainfall in lowlands

Under the influence of low-level southwest winds and southern moisture, southern regions occasionally experience localized brief rainfall. Due to the weak Pacific high pressure, the atmosphere is extremely unstable, with strong convection frequently developing in mountainous areas during the afternoons and expanding into some lowlands. Be vigilant against lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall.

· Wednesday to Saturday (22nd–25th) Weather: Weather gradually stabilizes, mostly sunny across regions

Low-level southwest winds begin to weaken, southern moisture decreases simultaneously, and the Pacific high pressure slightly strengthens, leading to gradually stabilizing weather. Most areas will be sunny and hot during the day. Although localized brief afternoon rainfall may still occur, it will mainly be confined to mountainous areas.

Will there be a typhoon after July 26? Wu Derong: Tropical disturbance developing

Additionally, regarding public concerns about typhoons and future tropical system dynamics, Wu Derong revealed that according to the latest model simulations from various countries, a tropical disturbance is indeed brewing and developing in the Northwest Pacific over the next week.

However, since current simulation results from different countries vary significantly, the weather outlook from Sunday to next Tuesday (26th–28th) will depend entirely on the development and movement of this tropical disturbance, with high uncertainty requiring continuous monitoring.

Meteorological expert Wu Shengyu stated that a large-scale tropical cloud cluster is currently undergoing intermittent activity over the low-latitude sea south of Guam. Development conditions are not yet favorable in the short term. Only after the Pacific high pressure strengthens and extends westward in the second half of next week will the easterly winds on its southern flank combine with the southwest monsoon to establish a more complete monsoon trough. Tropical disturbances within this trough will gradually develop and move toward the Philippines, possibly passing through the Philippines around the weekend (25th–26th), entering the South China Sea, and continuing toward Hainan Island. When passing south of Taiwan, the distance remains variable. Currently, the chance of a direct threat to Taiwan appears low, but ongoing changes require continued observation.

Weekly rainfall trend chart. (Image/Central Weather Administration)

Weekly high-temperature trend chart. (Image/Central Weather Administration)

Latest Weather Special Report: High-Temperature Information Issued for Seven Counties and Cities Across Taiwan! Complete Summary of Weekly Thunderstorm Schedule and Latest Weather Trends

[Immediate Alert] Central Weather Administration High-Temperature Information Light Code Distribution Table

Prevent 36°C+ High Temperatures

High-Temperature Light Code

Affected Counties and Cities

Weather Warning and Explanation

Orange Code

Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Changhua County, Hualien County

Extremely hot weather, with potential for consecutive days of extreme heat exceeding 36°C.

Yellow Code

Keelung City, Taitung County

Beware of temperatures exceeding 36°C; reduce outdoor activities.

[Timeline Trend] Overview of Future Weekly Weather Dynamics and Rainfall Schedule

Expert Wu Derong Analysis

Forecast Period

Main Weather Systems and Dynamics

Weather Overview and Rain Hotspots

Precautions and Warnings

Now until 21st

· Tropical cloud clusters intermittently developing and dissipating in the South China Sea.

· Affected by low-level atmospheric southwest winds and southern moisture inflow.

· Weak Pacific high pressure, high atmospheric instability.

· Southern regions: occasional localized brief rainfall.

· Afternoon thunderstorms: strong convection develops in mountainous areas and widely expands into some lowlands.

· Beware of lightning, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall.

· Weather is hot before rainfall; apply sunscreen and prevent heatstroke.

22nd to 25th

· Low-level southwest winds weaken.

· Southern moisture decreases.

· Pacific high pressure slightly strengthens, weather gradually stabilizes.

· Mostly sunny across regions, hot during the day.

· Localized brief rainfall decreases: mainly concentrated in mountainous areas.

· Strong UV, clear and hot.

· Strengthen sun protection, replenish water frequently to prevent heatstroke.

26th to 28th

· Tropical disturbance brewing and developing in the Northwest Pacific.

· Model simulations from various countries diverge, each showing different results.

· Weather conditions entirely depend on the development and dynamics of the tropical disturbance.

· Weather pattern highly uncertain; continue close monitoring of latest meteorological updates.

Source: Wu Derong