When Will the Taiwan Stock Market Rebound? Expert Warns of One Key Indicator: Lower Than April's Starting Point

On the 17th, the Taiwan stock market plummeted nearly 3,000 points. On the 20th, it opened high but turned negative by the close, with intraday volatility exceeding 700 points. The market closed down 221.57 points at 42,449.70, breaking below the 43,000 threshold. Many investors are watching closely to see how long the downturn will last. Financial expert Ku Yu posted on Facebook, pointing out that one key indicator for the Taiwan market has now fallen below the level seen at the start of the April rally. Should investors seize the rebound to exit, or stay the course with the index?

On the 17th, the Taiwan market was hit by wave of disappointment-driven selling, with tech stocks bearing the brunt. The weighted index crashed 2,953.71 points—the largest single-day drop in history—closing at its lowest point of 42,671.27, breaking through the quarterly moving average at 43,525. Institutional investors collectively sold a record-high NT$261.715 billion. Domestic dealers sold NT$82.179 billion, investment trusts bought NT$9.503 billion, and foreign and mainland Chinese investors sold NT$189.039 billion.

Many investors hoped this week would bring a fresh start and a rebound. The market initially rallied over 400 points, reclaiming the 43,000 level, but margin liquidation triggered a sharp sell-off, flipping the index into negative territory. Intraday swings exceeded 1,100 points. The index closed at 42,449.70, down 221.57 points (0.52%), with trading value shrinking to NT$983.863 billion.

Ku Yu noted that the latest margin maintenance ratio (excluding ETFs) has dropped to 147%, lower than the 152% seen at the start of the April rally. Should investors exit during this rebound, or remain committed to the index? In investing, there are no 'ifs' or 'I should have known earlier'—only your personal investment conviction should guide your next move.