Why Did Zhuge Liang's Northern Expeditions Always Fail? It Wasn't Due to Lack of Intelligence! Experts Reveal: Cao Cao Had Already Set a 'Deadlock' 30 Years Earlier, Making Victory Impossible for Shu Han

In the history of the Three Kingdoms, Zhuge Liang is widely admired for his wisdom and strategic brilliance. Yet, the northern expeditions he led on behalf of Shu Han consistently ended in retreat. While many blame Shu Han's eventual downfall on Emperor Liu Shan's incompetence, inherent weaknesses in national strength, or Zhuge Liang's repeated campaigns draining resources, a historical column from Sohu.com argues that the real deciding factor was not battlefield tactics or troop numbers, but the insurmountable gap in logistical and supply capabilities between Wei and Shu.

It wasn't due to Liu Shan's incompetence or Zhuge Liang's lack of intelligence. Zhuge Liang's five failed northern campaigns were the result of a 'deadlock' set in motion by Cao Cao three decades earlier.

Ancient warfare followed the principle: 'Before moving troops, ensure the grain supply.' During the late Eastern Han dynasty, warlords like Yuan Shao, Yuan Shu, Lü Bu, and Ma Chao all fell into crisis when their food supplies were cut off.

After securing Xuchang, Cao Cao introduced the 'Tuntian system,' where soldiers doubled as farmers. This allowed rapid accumulation of grain in the fertile Central Plains, laying the foundation for northern unification. Under the Cao Wei regime, the Tuntian system expanded to key regions like Guanzhong, Chang'an, and Huaixi. These agricultural-military bases provided stable food supplies and served as strong defensive outposts.

In contrast, Shu Han faced the infamous challenge: 'The Shu roads are harder to traverse than ascending to heaven.' Though the Sichuan Basin was fertile, it was surrounded by mountains. Any northern campaign required crossing perilous mountain passes, making transportation extremely costly.

Even with Zhuge Liang's invention of the 'wooden ox and flowing horse' to improve transport efficiency, this only addressed logistical tools, not the fundamental flaw of excessively long supply lines. As a result, frontline troops could never sustain prolonged operations.

This logistical limitation also explains the long-standing historical debate over why Zhuge Liang rejected Wei Yan's 'Ziwu Valley surprise attack' to seize Chang'an. Zhuge Liang wasn't being overly cautious. As a seasoned military strategist, he understood that even if the surprise attack succeeded, the narrow, treacherous terrain of Ziwu Valley could not support the continuous supply of food and resources for a large army. Once supply lines were cut, the attacking force would be isolated and easily destroyed.

Zhuge Liang fully recognized the disparity in national strength. Shu Han's only chance lay in a 'quick decisive battle.' Thus, while in power, he consistently launched offensives to seek breakthroughs and avoid drawn-out wars. However, the logistical bottleneck remained an insurmountable obstacle.

The Wei general Sima Yi clearly understood this logistical war. He realized that Shu Han's greatest weakness wasn't combat effectiveness, but its inability to sustain long-term expeditions. In a war of attrition, Cao Wei's robust Tuntian system and ample reserves gave it a decisive advantage.

Therefore, Sima Yi repeatedly adopted a 'hold and do not fight' strategy against Zhuge Liang's advances, allowing time to erode Shu's limited food supplies. Inevitably, Shu forces, operating far from home with exhausted supplies and no reinforcements, were forced to retreat back to Sichuan.

Despite Zhuge Liang's unmatched intelligence and inventions like the wooden ox and flowing horse, he could not overcome the natural barriers formed by national strength, geography, and Cao Cao's logistical system. In all five northern expeditions, Shu's tactical planning was nearly flawless—often terrifying Wei's troops on the battlefield—but each campaign ended with 'retreat due to exhausted supplies.' Shu Han, caught in repeated supply crises and strategic deadlocks, gradually marched toward its inevitable downfall.

Source: Sohu.com