Weather / Typhoon Noul Update: Formation Time, Predicted Path, and Impact on Taiwan – Heaviest Rain Expected Over These Two Days

Typhoon Noul, the 12th typhoon of 2026, is about to form! Tropical disturbance 92W, currently located east of the Philippines, is rapidly developing. The quasi-typhoon Noul is expected to take shape in late July 2026 and come closest to Taiwan on July 24 and 25. Although the Central Weather Administration assesses the probability of a direct landfall on Taiwan as low, its outer circulation will still bring significant rainfall to Hualien, Taitung, and the Hengchun Peninsula. Below is a comprehensive overview of Typhoon Noul’s latest developments, predicted path, formation timing, regional weather impacts, and rainfall hotspots to help you prepare for typhoon season in advance.

Could Tropical Disturbance 92W Become the Quasi-Typhoon 'Noul'?

Tropical disturbance 92W is a low-pressure system currently located southeast of the Philippines and is the precursor to the 2026 12th typhoon, 'Noul' (international name: Noul). According to meteorologist Lin De-en, the disturbance is currently in a highly favorable environment for development, including low vertical wind shear, good upper-level divergence and outflow, and sea surface temperatures reaching 29–30°C, all of which are promoting continuous expansion of convective cloud clusters.

Regarding formation timing, current forecasts vary slightly. The Central Weather Administration predicts the tropical depression may intensify into a typhoon after entering the Bashi Strait, possibly by July 25. In contrast, Wu Sheng-yu, senior advisor at Weather Risk Company, suggests it could strengthen into the 12th typhoon of 2026, 'Noul,' as early as July 23 when it reaches the waters east of Luzon Island. The exact formation time and intensity changes should be confirmed by official announcements from the Central Weather Administration.

Will Typhoon Noul Make Landfall in Taiwan? Predicted Path and Impact Timeline

The likelihood of Typhoon Noul making direct landfall in Taiwan is low. It is expected to pass by the southwestern waters of Taiwan, with July 24 and 25 marking the peak period of closest approach. According to the latest meteorological prediction models—both traditional physical models and AI-based models—the general path direction is consistent: after formation, the typhoon will move westward to northwestward, guided by environmental flow, pass through the Bashi Strait, and continue toward the eastern coast of Guangdong Province, China.

However, there remains uncertainty regarding how close the typhoon center will pass to Taiwan. Wu Sheng-yu notes that closer predicted paths could bring the storm within 100 km of Hengchun, while farther paths may keep it over 200 km away. If Typhoon Noul shifts northward after passing south of Hengchun due to high-pressure systems or terrain effects, it will approach the southern Taiwan Strait more closely, prolonging wind and rain impacts on Taiwan.

Rainfall Hotspots for July 24–25, 2026: Regional Weather Impacts at a Glance

Due to the outer circulation of quasi-typhoon Noul and the subsequent northward movement of southern cloud systems, Taiwan’s weather will become highly unstable on July 24 and 25, 2026. The windward areas of Hualien, Taitung, and the Hengchun Peninsula will experience the most intense rainfall. To help the public quickly grasp local weather conditions, here is a summary of impacts by region:

- Affected Areas: Hualien, Taitung, Hengchun Peninsula, and Southern Mountainous Regions - Weather Changes: Localized brief showers or thunderstorms - Precautions: Windward side will see the heaviest rain; be alert for localized downpours

- Affected Areas: Western Taiwan - Weather Changes: Extreme heat, afternoon thunderstorms - Precautions: Initially hot due to leeward subsidence; large thunderstorms likely to develop later

- Affected Areas: Greater Taipei, Keelung North Coast, Yilan - Weather Changes: Scattered brief showers - Precautions: Mostly cloudy to sunny, but isolated showers possible in mountainous areas

In addition to rainfall, wind impacts cannot be overlooked. Meteorological experts warn that terrain-induced strong gusts may occur along Taiwan’s northern and southern coastal ends. The afternoon thunderstorm pattern in western Taiwan is expected to persist from July 24 through July 27–28. The public is advised to carry rain gear when going out and remain vigilant against extreme weather changes.

Key Focus Points for Typhoon Noul’s Future Development

Two critical indicators to monitor for Typhoon Noul’s future development are its 'northward deviation angle' and 'movement speed.' If the typhoon shifts significantly northward after entering the South China Sea, strong gusts along coastal areas will intensify noticeably. Additionally, AI models predict a faster movement speed, while traditional models forecast a slower pace—differing by about 12 hours. This discrepancy will directly affect when Taiwan exits the outer edge of the storm and when rainfall alerts are lifted.

Frequently Asked Questions About Typhoon Noul

What is Tropical Disturbance 92W? Tropical disturbance 92W is a low-pressure system currently located in the southeastern waters of the Philippines. With favorable development conditions, it is highly likely to strengthen into a tropical depression and further evolve into the 12th typhoon of 2026, 'Noul.'

When will quasi-typhoon Noul have the greatest impact on Taiwan? The most intense wind and rain impacts will occur on July 24 and 25. During these two days, the typhoon center will be closest to Taiwan, and its outer cloud system will directly affect the weather in eastern and southern regions.

What happens if the typhoon path shifts northward? If Typhoon Noul shifts northward, it will approach the southern Taiwan Strait more closely. This would intensify the outer circulation’s impact on Taiwan, not only increasing wind strength in southern and coastal areas but also prolonging the overall rainfall duration.