Typhoon Nangka's Path Accelerating? Central Weather Administration Reveals Closest Approach Time to Taiwan: Marine Warning Not Ruled Out

A low-pressure system east of the Philippines developed into Tropical Depression TD13 at 2:00 PM on July 22, currently located about 1,510 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi. According to the Central Weather Administration (CWA), under the influence of the Pacific high-pressure system, TD13 will continue moving west-northwest toward the northern part of Luzon Island and the Bashi Strait through July 23. The system shows signs of gradual intensification into a mild typhoon. If it strengthens, it will become the 12th typhoon of the year, named 'Nangka.' The CWA has not ruled out issuing a marine typhoon warning, though uncertainty remains regarding its future intensity and track.

If Typhoon Nangka forms, a marine warning may be issued. The system is expected to pass through the northern Luzon and Bashi Strait between July 24 (Friday) and 25 (Saturday), entering the waters near the Dongsha Islands. Should it intensify into a typhoon, the CWA may issue a marine typhoon warning. The CWA warns that tropical systems evolve rapidly, and both path and intensity remain uncertain, urging the public to monitor the latest forecasts.

On July 23 (Thursday), hot weather will persist nationwide, with localized afternoon thunderstorms in some areas. From July 24 (Friday) to 25 (Saturday), due to the outer circulation of TD13 or the typhoon, localized heavy to torrential rains are expected in Hualien, Taitung, and the Hengchun Peninsula. Southern Taiwan faces a high chance of heavy rain, while northeastern and northern regions, including Taipei and New Taipei, may experience brief showers.

On July 25 (Saturday), northern areas should be particularly cautious of foehn winds. The CWA explains that foehn winds are dry, hot, strong winds caused by terrain effects, leading to sudden temperature spikes. Residents in northern Taiwan are advised to stay alert to related forecasts.

From the evening of July 24 through July 25, sea conditions will significantly deteriorate in southern Taiwan, the Hualien-Taitung region, and Penghu, with wave heights reaching up to 3 meters. From July 25 to 26 (Sunday), long-period swells are likely along the eastern and southwestern coasts, as well as around Lanyu, Green Island, the Hengchun Peninsula, and Penghu, accompanied by strong gusts of 8 to 9 levels near coastal areas. The CWA urges the public engaging in beach activities or maritime operations to remain highly vigilant.

The CWA notes that TD13 formed at 2:00 PM on July 22, currently about 1,510 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, and is expected to pass through the northern Luzon and Bashi Strait between Friday and Saturday. A marine typhoon warning may be issued if the system strengthens into a typhoon, though uncertainty in track and intensity persists. (Provided by CWA)

Is Typhoon Nangka accelerating past Taiwan? Latest AI forecast reveals. Weather expert Wu Sheng-yu points out that AI-adjusted forecasts generally predict a faster movement for Typhoon Nangka, suggesting it will pass south of Hengchun and southwest of Taiwan between Friday evening and Saturday morning, approaching Guangdong's coast by Saturday morning. In contrast, traditional physical models predict a slower pace, with the closest approach to Taiwan occurring on Saturday afternoon and movement toward Guangdong's coast only by Saturday night—about a 12-hour difference.

Regarding the path, Wu explains that ensemble forecasts converge on a passage through the Bashi Strait, but the distance between the typhoon center and Taiwan varies. The closest scenario brings it within 100 kilometers of Hengchun, while the farthest passes over 200 kilometers away. Another variable is the potential northward shift after passing south of Hengchun, influenced by the southwest side of the high-pressure system and terrain-induced circulation adjustments. A larger northward deviation would bring the typhoon closer to the southern Taiwan Strait, increasing its impact and prolonging the duration.

Wu warns that unstable weather may persist for over two to three days, with heavy thunderstorms possibly extending into next Monday and Tuesday (July 27–28). Overall, while a direct hit on Taiwan is unlikely, the typhoon will significantly affect weekend and early-week weather, and the public is advised to closely monitor updated forecasts.