SpaceX officially went public on June 12 with an offering price of $135 per share. Although SpaceX is still unprofitable and faces a long road to profitability, investors have strong confidence in Elon Musk. On its first trading day, the stock surged to $160.95, and by the third day, it hit a record high of $225.64. Based on 13.16 billion shares outstanding, its market capitalization briefly reached $2.969 trillion, instantly making it one of the top five most valuable companies in the United States. However, this golden period lasted only three days. After that, the stock began a steady decline, falling to $119.68 by July 20. Its market cap shrank to $1.577 trillion, erasing $1.4 trillion in value in just over a month. All investors who participated in the IPO suffered losses.
Three days of狂漲, one month of狂跌—Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called it the 'biggest Ponzi scheme in history' even before SpaceX went public. Bubble forecaster Jeremy Grantham argued that space exploration goals are too distant, and SpaceX will ultimately collapse. Veteran Wall Street investor George Noble estimated the stock was worth only $30 per share—far below the IPO price. Noted short-seller Jim Chanos said SpaceX is built on 'hope and dreams,' and its valuation cannot justify a trillion-dollar market cap. Michael Burry, the author of 'The Big Short,' bluntly stated that the valuation is wildly inflated, and he refrained from shorting only because the options were too expensive.
These bearish voices now appear vindicated. The stock’s fall from $225 to $119 has fully validated their warnings. Elon Musk’s strategy of rapidly integrating his companies and pushing them into the capital markets is now facing a reality check as markets regain rationality.
The bursting of the SpaceX bubble has not only hurt U.S. investors but also dragged down Taiwan’s supply chain. Five Taiwan-based firms—Sunway Communication, Winson, Wistron, Tong Hsing Electronic, and Yaodin—had previously surged on speculation of SpaceX-related business. These suppliers had hoped that orders from the space industry would drive revenue growth and become a new engine for expansion.
However, as SpaceX’s stock price collapsed, the speculative glow around these suppliers faded. Their share prices have since plummeted, leaving many early retail investors with heavy losses. With tangible benefits yet to materialize, the sharp correction has come early, and investors have paid a steep price.
Hsieh Jin-He remarked, 'Stock prices must be backed by fundamentals. When prices run too fast, it's like an old man walking a dog—no matter how far the dog runs ahead, it eventually returns to its owner. The recent correction in Taiwan’s stock market, with many stocks halved, is the backlash from excessive speculation.'
This article is rewritten based on Hsieh Jin-He’s Facebook commentary and information related to SpaceX’s IPO. It does not constitute investment advice, and readers should conduct their own due diligence before investing.
FACT BOX
- Source: PR Times
- Category: News