Zhen Media Poll: Lai Jui-long Leads by 8 Points at 39.6%; Ko Chih-en Gains High-Educated Supporters, 'Breaks Through in This District'

With about 120 days remaining until the end-of-year election, Zhen Media released today (23rd) its latest public opinion poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral race. The results show that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Jui-long has 39.6% support, while Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ko Chih-en has 31.6%, a gap of 8 percentage points. In terms of favorability—how likely each candidate is to win—50.3% of respondents favor Lai Jui-long, 22.8% favor Ko Chih-en, and 26.9% have no clear opinion, resulting in a 27.5-point gap.

The latest Zhen Media poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral election surveyed residents of Kaohsiung aged 20 and above. 39.6% of respondents expressed support for DPP candidate Lai Jui-long, while 31.6% supported KMT candidate Ko Chih-en. 28.8% had no clear preference, giving Lai an 8-point lead in support. Regarding favorability, 50.3% of Kaohsiung residents believe Lai will win, compared to 22.8% for Ko, with 26.9% undecided—marking a 27.5-point difference.

Further analysis by party affiliation shows that 79.6% of DPP supporters back Lai Jui-long, while 90.6% of KMT supporters support Ko Chih-en. Among Taiwan People's Party supporters, 16.9% support Lai, and 69.6% support Ko. Among those with no party preference, 12.2% support Lai and 24.3% support Ko.

Cross-analysis by demographic reveals that Lai’s supporters are primarily aged 30–39 and 60+, with junior high education. Ko’s supporters are mostly aged 40–69, with high school, vocational college, or postgraduate education. Ko is particularly strong among highly educated voters.

By legislative district, Lai received the highest support (44.3%) in the 4th district (Daliao–Renwu), while Ko led in the 3rd district (Zuoying–Nanzih) with 39.1%—the only district where Ko outperforms Lai.

In terms of party preference, 41.1% of Kaohsiung residents support the DPP, 19.8% the KMT, and 5.2% the TPP. Politically, 43.3% identify as pan-green, 22.9% as pan-blue, and 29.3% as centrists.

The poll was commissioned by Zhen Media and conducted by Shanshui Public Opinion Research Co., Ltd. The survey was carried out from July 18 to 20, 2026, via CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) targeting Kaohsiung residents aged 20 and above. Residential landline users were sampled using systematic sampling with random last two digits. Weighting was applied based on Ministry of the Interior population data across region, gender, age, and education to reflect population structure. The survey achieved 1,069 completed interviews, with a sampling error of ±3.00 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.