China's Demographic Crisis Deepens! An Average of 81 Elementary Schools and Kindergartens Close Daily, Enrollment to Halve in Next 5 Years

According to Chinese media reports, the impact of declining birth rates has placed immense pressure on elementary school admissions across China, leading to widespread school closures and consolidations. Official statistics show that in 2025, the number of elementary schools nationwide decreased by approximately 8,000 compared to the previous year, averaging nearly 22 closures per day. Meanwhile, kindergartens saw an even steeper decline of 21,400 institutions, averaging nearly 59 closures per day. Combined, elementary schools and kindergartens in China decreased by about 29,400 in 2025, meaning an average of nearly 81 schools shut down each day.

A report by China's 'Caijing Magazine' revealed that a prestigious elementary school in Changsha, Hunan Province, posted its '2026 New Student Enrollment Notice' in April but had not removed it by late July, as it had only filled five classes. Another renowned school nearby managed to fill only three classes, while a less prominent neighboring school filled just one class. The report pointed out that the once-fierce competition for admission to elite elementary schools has vanished, and enrollment pressure has become a widespread trend.

In fact, the decline in elementary school enrollment numbers has been ongoing for several years, with six consecutive years of decrease since 2020. Over the past five years, approximately 34,000 schools have been eliminated cumulatively. The number of kindergartens peaked at 289,200 nationwide in 2022, but has since decreased by nearly 60,000 over three years. The number of preschool children has also dropped from 48.1826 million in 2020 to 32.2552 million in 2025, a decline of over 30%.

The report emphasized that these figures indicate China's demographic crisis is now extending from early childhood education into compulsory education. Data also shows that kindergarten teacher employment has been significantly affected. In 2025, the number of full-time kindergarten teachers nationwide dropped to 2.6126 million, a decrease of 219,300 from the previous year. Compared to the peak of 3.2442 million in 2022, this represents a reduction of 631,600 teachers, a nearly 20% decline.

Chu Chaohui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Educational Sciences, previously stated that this trend has not yet bottomed out. With birth rates continuing to fall, the number of kindergartens in China will further decrease. According to predictions by educational research institutions, if current birth rate trends continue, the total number of preschool children will drop to around 25 million between 2027 and 2030—about half of the peak level.

Regarding elementary schools, the national count in 2025 stood at 128,300, down approximately 8,000 from the previous year—the largest decline in the past five years. The number of enrolled students was 101.7829 million, a decrease of 4.06 million (nearly 4%) from the previous year. New admissions totaled 14.6174 million, down about 1.55 million from the prior year, representing a decline of approximately 9.6%.

Professor Qin Yuyou's research team at the Faculty of Education, Northeast Normal University, predicted that during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period (2026–2030), elementary school enrollment will continue to decline. In 2026, it is expected to drop to about 12.34 million, and by 2029, it could fall to 9.28 million.

Liu Houlian, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, analyzing the official '15th Five-Year Plan for Educational Development,' pointed out that kindergartens and elementary schools in China peaked during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period (2021–2025). Middle schools are expected to peak around 2026, high schools around 2029, and higher education around 2032—after which all will begin to decline.

The report noted that under this trend, the once-common phenomenon of Chinese elementary school classes exceeding 50 students is gradually disappearing, shifting toward smaller class sizes. However, classes with over 30 students remain the norm, still higher than the EU's 19, the US's 20, South Korea's 22, the UK's 26, and Japan's 27 students per class.