Taiwan Strait Crisis in 2027: Will Japan Face Conflict First? Guo Zhengliang Unveils China’s 'Encircle Japan, Pressure Taiwan' Strategy: What’s Driving Beijing’s Urgency

Former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson issued a strategic warning in 2021, stating, 'Taiwan is clearly part of China’s ambitions, and this threat could materialize within the next decade—or even within six years (by 2027).' Recently, former legislator Guo Zhengliang analyzed shifts in East Asia since 2021, suggesting that a 'contingency involving Japan' might occur first.

Guo points out that Chinese military aircraft have drastically reduced their frequency of circumnavigating Taiwan, while increasing incursions and provocations near Japan. He argues this reflects China’s assessment that Japan will inevitably intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict. China is strategically calculating how to prevent the United States from being drawn into war. 'They (China) will act precisely up to the point where the U.S. security treaty won’t be triggered,' Guo explains, aiming to force the U.S. to question whether intervention is worth the cost.

According to Guo, objective conditions for China to use military force to unify Taiwan will be in place by 2027. This year coincides with Taiwan’s President Lai Qingde seeking a second term and Chinese President Xi Jinping beginning his fourth term. Meanwhile, the U.S. currently faces insufficient ammunition stockpiles. While the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait by 2027 is high, Guo identifies two complicating factors.

First, former U.S. President Donald Trump may treat Taiwan as a bargaining chip to establish strategic stability with China. Second, Japan has unexpectedly become actively involved in Taiwan-related affairs—an outcome China did not anticipate.

Guo notes that the original 'U.S.-China-Taiwan' triangular dynamic has expanded to include a new 'China-Japan-Taiwan' triangle, interconnected through the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. As a result, China is now calculating how to make Japan pay a price while convincing the U.S. not to intervene. Consequently, the regional flashpoint may shift from the Taiwan Strait to the waters around Japan’s southwestern islands—meaning a 'contingency involving Japan' could occur first.

Guo adds that from China’s perspective, the ideal scenario is for Taiwan to agree to negotiations. However, President Lai is unwilling to negotiate. Therefore, China must make more Taiwanese 'lose hope in external support (especially from Japan).' In this context, Japan’s best outcome would be to draw the U.S. into war. But the U.S. likely views Japan as a 'Ukraine with a security alliance'—meaning it may not use military force in a Sino-Japanese conflict, as the First Island Chain is no longer strategically favorable for U.S. forces.

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