Gap Between KMT and DPP Narrows in Kaohsiung Mayoral Poll? Shen Cheng-nan Reveals 'Ke Up, Lai Down' Trend: DPP Should Be Worried

With about 120 days remaining until the end-of-year election, the latest poll on the Kaohsiung mayoral race released by Zhen Media shows Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Rui-long at 39.6% support, versus 31.6% for Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ke Chih-en—a gap of 8 percentage points.

In response, psychiatrist Shen Cheng-nan posted on Facebook stating that Ke Chih-en's campaign momentum is clearly rising, while Lai Rui-long's is declining. He argues the actual gap between the two is likely smaller than the reported 8 percentage points.

Shen emphasized that the Kaohsiung mayoral race is the most critical contest in this local election cycle. If Ke Chih-en manages to overturn the current standing, it would make President Lai Qing-de's 2028 re-election bid extremely difficult. Conversely, a DPP win would provide reassurance for the party's national strategy.

The latest data comes from a poll commissioned by Zhen Media and conducted by Shanshui Public Opinion Research. It shows Ke trailing Lai by 8 percentage points. However, over two months ago, the same Shanshui firm, commissioned by United Daily News, reported Ke trailing by 16.3%.

Shen analyzed that since the polling agency is the same, institutional effects cancel out, confirming a real shift in voter sentiment over the past two to three months—'Ke up, Lai down.' This trend is not due to sampling error but reflects actual changes, as the gap has narrowed by 8 percentage points between the two polls.

Shen noted that institutional effects in Kaohsiung are stronger than in Taipei or New Taipei, especially for certain media outlets. The best explanation for the volatile polling numbers over recent months is institutional bias. Many Kaohsiung voters either refuse to participate in phone surveys from specific media or respond with reservation, leading to significant discrepancies between polls—even from the same organization.

Another of Shen’s views is that 'online polls are now more accurate than landline or mobile phone surveys.' He cited the 2022 six-metropolitan-city elections, where the two most accurate polls were both online-based.

Shen affirmed that Ke Chih-en’s campaign is gaining traction while Lai Rui-long’s is clearly weakening. While it's still hard to determine who is truly ahead, one thing is certain: if even Shanshui’s data shows a single-digit gap, Lai Rui-long cannot be leading by double digits. The race is likely a narrow lead—or even a slight deficit.

In the Zhen Media-commissioned Shanshui poll, the pro-green sample size was 440, while the combined pro-blue and Taiwan People’s Party sample totaled only 266, suggesting a potential mismatch with real-world conditions. Therefore, the actual Ke-Lai gap is likely smaller than 8 percentage points. Lai Rui-long and the DPP should take this as a serious warning.

More exclusive insights from Feng Media: · Zhen Media Poll: Lai Rui-long Leads by 8 Points at 39.6%—Ke Chih-en Gains High-Educated Supporters and Breaks Through in 'This District' · Is New Taipei and Kaohsiung’s Political Landscape Shifting? Shen Cheng-nan Reveals the True Polling Picture: These Two Candidates Have Strong Winning Chances · Can Ke Chih-en Win Kaohsiung by Year-End? Shen Fu-hsiung Analyzes Polls and Utters Four Characters: 'She Has Great Potential'